6 replies to this topic

[nimblebear]

That might set a few hopefuls back. The market baked in rate decreases since Feb. - a rate increase looks increasingly probable. The Fed can't continue to ignore the data. They are really between a rock and a hard place. Sitting still is not going to be an option any longer - either [bleeeep] or get off the pot. Too many other country's are raising rates. The economy doesn't show much signs of stumbling, despite the housing picture and sub prime. Just some thoughts.

[CLK]

http://stockcharts.c...6533&r=9645.png

[relax]

From Russ

"Human nature never changes and that is why prices swing from the one extreme level to the other. People get too hopeful and optimistic when prices are high. Then when prices reach extreme low, they get too blue, too pessimistic and over-sell." W.D. Gann

Just as people were over buying due to hopes of a rate cut, they are now over selling for fear of a rate hike

"can't ignore the data" - sure data has been ok, but not more than that

Remember how Fed were on hold during Q3 and Q4 of 2006, where GDP was much stronger and inflation was much higher

So really Fed are going no where this year - but these two corrections in february and june have already caused enough damage on the technicals that the bears in fact have the upper hand

When rate hike fears subside and emotions/over selling normalize, the market will correct by rallying

But why set new highs - the market has no goal - nothing to strive for - no rate cut, only fear of rate hike in 2008 once GDP is back on track

But what about Bank of Japan - a couple of rate hikes from Japan will rock the boat

That might set a few hopefuls back. The market baked in rate decreases since Feb. - a rate increase looks increasingly probable. The Fed can't continue to ignore the data. They are really between a rock and a hard place.

Sitting still is not going to be an option any longer - either [bleeeep] or get off the pot. Too many other country's are raising rates. The economy doesn't show much signs of stumbling, despite the housing picture and sub prime.

Just some thoughts.

[selecto]

[attachment=5656:attachment] They sure have been selling those suckers. What are they doing with the proceeds?

[Jnavin]

Selling T-bonds, buying T-bills...

[selecto]

So cash at 5 and a quarter. If thats the best trade available - Yikes. Back in the day, when they sold the bond, they bought equities - it was a kinder, gentler time.

[OEXCHAOS]

"Bond Market Vigilantes" I doubt the Fed will have to do anything but cut in a couple months. What do the futures say the odds of an increase are? Mark