4 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

Ok, I am going a surmise that CPI release on Friday is going to be on high side. I think that it has to be high because, rising Treasury rates would not make any sense otherwise (other than FCBs declaring boycott of US debt--which is equivalent to declaration of war.) Therefore, I am going to expect a severe down move on Friday on CPI numbers. I am just trying to think like a pigman®.

Edited by linrom1, 13 June 2007 - 10:58 AM.

[eminimee]

Just my two cents...but I think CPI as far as a market mover will play second fiddle to Goldmans earnings Thursday evening.

[Cirrus]

I don't think GS earnings are near as signficant as the CPI. Since when has GS not blown away 'estimates'? The market expectations are obvious, here, IMO. However, the macro backdrop is what's moving stocks--ie interest rates. CPI will have a major impact there. GS earnings are the flea on the tail. The CPI is the dog. Either way one would think that LT rates have already baked in a terrible showing by the CPI and PPI.

[gorydog]

I don't think GS earnings are near as signficant as the CPI. Since when has GS not blown away 'estimates'? The market expectations are obvious, here, IMO.

However, the macro backdrop is what's moving stocks--ie interest rates. CPI will have a major impact there. GS earnings are the flea on the tail. The CPI is the dog.

Either way one would think that LT rates have already baked in a terrible showing by the CPI and PPI.

So low CPI/PPI #'s should fuel an explosive rally? There are lots of puts/shorts, meaning a rally will burn the largest amount of traders.

GD

[Cirrus]

Not making predictions--just stating a humble opinion that the CPI and PPI are more important than GS earnings as per the psyche of market participants and thus the market.