9 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

Well sometimes you ride em high and you ride em low. THe NDX was just to close, during my looks yesterday at the market I told myself ,....they like to Gap that thing to new highs...and today they did! I've certainly been allowing myself to think thru this last three day rally instead of just trading the signals...which have been on a buy and are completely overbought now. I was even late on last nights execution so my trade didn't even go thru...now that's really being off. So today without my Short signal even firing yet,... I'm going to maintain a short position but switch from the NDX which is only up about .8% to the RUT which was up 1.4% last checked. Signals are not screaming short ...yet...but they are over bought.. the weekly sell hoooks are reversing up in for the RUT and also for the NDX. It can be so frustrating to think that the market will only preform one way thru expiration but it is a very high percentage play...... We'll get it out of the way and ......Re-focus on the TA and we will be fine. My personal port-a-folio was just at its recent highs three days ago... I'm really not off that much ...although still some percentage points off the All-Time Highs . A re-focus on the technicals will have us back on our way there within a few weeks. Maybe not in time to construct that NEW POOL HOUSE before summer ends..but moving in the right direction never the less. Now is NOT the time for panic if you have a bad bet on ...simple to and sit on the sidelines and wait for another opportunity. You might even save 1-2% . My Position is now 100% short the RUT at overbought conditions,.. but without a sell cross. If this is it for you today,,,rest up,..have a good weekend and see you here next week.

Edited by Mr Dev, 15 June 2007 - 09:50 AM.

[rkd80]

Dev, So you are not phased by this retest of highs and in some cases newer highs? A really strong bear case was that we already saw an IT high and were going to operate from that understanding. Today is shattering that idea relatively quickly. I suppose next week is still a possibility for the breakdown to continue, but I have much less conviction and am trying to unmarry myself from the bear view - although it is hard given all the information that was presented. rkd

[Mr Dev]

Absolutely not.... just another day,,... and another percentage move one way or the other.

Means nothing to my trading psyche...it does support momentum but we can trade both ways in and out

of momentum.

A really strong bear case was that we already saw an IT high and were going to operate from that understanding.

Since I don't care what others think.... and that's certainly not how I think when I trade the above mentioned is all useless information in my trading.

I'm back to not trying to pick a week for a turn based on the past or today ...or my "thoughts" about the future...

... I'm back to trading the ST technicals that saw this turn for what it was a nice 3 day pop.... and I should of

listened. Period. If the weeklies hadn't been on a turn I would of listened sooner.
I gave it an extra two days

because of it and that was enough.

Plan here and now is to manage my way off my position with less of a loss than at the present and re group ...

and prepare for then next winning trade! To be followed by the next winning trade after that.

There's my focus going forward.... it always work when I'm really focued and doesn't the less I'm focused

Edited by Mr Dev, 15 June 2007 - 10:09 AM.

[skyymaster]

Can't win them all. Don't be too hard on your self. There is always another day to make another dollar or two.

[qqqqtrdr]

This is just another big bounce off the 50-day MA. On Nasdaq, the head and shoulders that was forming in now invalidated. On my charts it looks like we will continue higher for at least a couple more days.... Barry

[Russ]

I'm with you Mr Dev, short er2 here, should close gap @ 846 not sure if it will go lower than that.

Edited by Russ, 15 June 2007 - 10:27 AM.

[Mr Dev]

Thank you all for the very kind words and emails..... not to mention you've made my day..

Here's a chart Update...that is Overbought but seen some real uncharacteristic choppiness lately.

Again a reminder that last Wednesday the FED Repo were almost Twice as high of an average Wednesday.. addin 8.5

to start this rally...with the powers at be ...getting very excited to see EXTRA liquidity starting to flow back

in....and again today the FEDs early PUMP of 11.5 BILLION which is about TWICE the average for a FRIDAYS add!

Again you see the results in the markets again with the players getting very excited to see liquidity back....look

for more inflation higher Gold and Oil imho.. money will find its way there too.


Sorry to ramble here is that UPDATE OF the FLIPPIN CHART

Edited by Mr Dev, 15 June 2007 - 10:37 AM.

[tozwp]

Thank you all for the very kind words and emails..... not to mention you've made my day..

Here's a chart Update...that is Overbought but seen some real uncharacteristic choppiness lately.

Again a reminder that last Wednesday the FED Repo were almost Twice as high of an average Wednesday.. addin 8.5

to start this rally...with the powers at be ...getting very excited to see EXTRA liquidity starting to flow back

in....and again today the FEDs early PUMP of 11.5 BILLION which is about TWICE the average for a FRIDAYS add!

Again you see the results in the markets again with the players getting very excited to see liquidity back....look

for more inflation higher Gold and Oil imho.. money will find its way there too.


Sorry to ramble here is that UPDATE OF the FLIPPIN CHART

Don't forget food as a parking spot for all that additional paper. Have you seen the price of wheat lately? When these grain prices start working their way down the chain and into food prices, the consumer is not going to like it. But at least the core CPI looks good :-)

[Mr Dev]

I'm going to post the early morning 10:45 et differences between the RUT and NDX for those who have watched this spread play when I've jumped from one to the other.... to avoid further losses or capture further gains.. So here it is again today live..... at the am trade time I took what was a loss on the NDX pop at approx -.90%(x2) I flipped over to the RUT which was Up 1.55%.. ....so please follow this........not wanting the NDX.... to do any catch up to the RUT,...I exited position in order to resist further losses. While also knowing the possibility of the NDX to drag down the RUT, I moved to a short position there that could actually pull back the spread amount of .65%! So follow my logic here.... if this scenario were to play out as soon as today....... the RUT retracting and both indexes closing up .90%........I would actually make the .65% spread (x2) or 1.3% for the trade. This would off set the .90% (x2) or -1.8% loss for this morning ....and result in only a small -.5% loss while keeping me into a FULLY SHORT POSITION.....and would result in less loss on my account....... and less shock to my psyche ......less pressure on me and also allows me to stay sharp and less emotional about the markets Historic, but absurd actions. I hope it works again today ...just for example purposes...that may teach others how I often avoid the max pain while a trade goes against me.....while not running and hiding just before a possible reversal back in my favor. You won't have a story book ending to every trade in this position but it is a NICE defensive weapon in your game !!

Edited by Mr Dev, 15 June 2007 - 11:02 AM.

[Mr Dev]

Don't forget food as a parking spot for all that additional paper. Have you seen the price of wheat lately? When these grain prices start working their way down the chain and into food prices, the consumer is not going to like it. But at least the core CPI looks good :-)

So right you are,.. amazing they can pull inflation on us .....keep rates high and raise em higher...while out one

side of there mouth they say there's no inflation......that is until the day the raise rates to ward off any signs of

inflation.

I mean how dumb do they think we are?