COT this week is quite telling
#1
Posted 15 June 2007 - 03:32 PM
Commercials are the same at 50% but have started to short more.
Large specs went from 49% to 46% bullish - but xD says these guys are just trend following dumb money.
http://www.softwaren...t/charts/SP.png
#2
Posted 15 June 2007 - 03:48 PM
#3
Posted 15 June 2007 - 03:49 PM
Did I miss the conclusion?
conclusion:
dumb money is buying more
smart money: selling more
stay out of smart money's way?
#4
Posted 15 June 2007 - 03:51 PM
Edited by xD&Cox, 15 June 2007 - 03:58 PM.
#5
Posted 15 June 2007 - 04:03 PM
To add on to xD's sentiment statement, I showed a link yesterday from Investor's Intelligence and the bullish % there is 56%+ which is generally where the market tends to top out. It's not a timing tool, but something to keep in mind.
Large Specs are trend followers and they are usually wrong at the reversal points. But sometimes they are not. (usually they get caught long at the top and short at the bottom since they are trend followers)
Commercials are trend makers and they are usually right at the reversal points. (They go short at the top, buy at the bottom)
What you want to watch is a big change in commercials' position. For example if they have been short the market for a while, and if they significantly increased their position recently, it is likely that the market will reverse soon.
According to this week's COT, commercials shorted more, small specs bot more. Thats bearish.
Recent action in Equity PC also confirms small retail investor sentiment... they are getting seriously bullish
#6
Posted 15 June 2007 - 04:15 PM
.. .. ..
Mr Dev
......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!
#7
Posted 15 June 2007 - 04:42 PM
Small specs are more bullish...by 1%
Commercials are the same at 50% but have started to short more.
Large specs went from 49% to 46% bullish - but xD says these guys are just trend following dumb money.
http://www.softwaren...t/charts/SP.png
In the 80s and 90s as the market ticked higher and higher during what many consider the greatest bull market of all time the large specs remained resolutely bearish. In fact, you could count on one hand how many times the large specs were net long. And when the market took off in 2003, the large specs remained net short throughout the run from under 800 in the S&P to 1150. In bull markets the large specs tend to be counter trend traders against the bull trend while in bear markets they tend to do the opposite and trade with the bearish trend. There are a few exceptions the most recent being where the large specs were trading the bullish trend off the summer 06 lows. A dream scenario if you are long is when the large specs and small specs are net short and the commercials net long in the large S&P contract.
#8
Posted 15 June 2007 - 04:47 PM
Small specs are more bullish...by 1%
Commercials are the same at 50% but have started to short more.
Large specs went from 49% to 46% bullish - but xD says these guys are just trend following dumb money.
http://www.softwaren...t/charts/SP.png
In the 80s and 90s as the market ticked higher and higher during what many consider the greatest bull market of all time the large specs remained resolutely bearish. In fact, you could count on one hand how many times the large specs were net long. And when the market took off in 2003, the large specs remained net short throughout the run from under 800 in the S&P to 1150. In bull markets the large specs tend to be counter trend traders against the bull trend while in bear markets they tend to do the opposite and trade with the bearish trend. There are a few exceptions the most recent being where the large specs were trading the bullish trend off the summer 06 lows. A dream scenario if you are long is when the large specs and small specs are net short and the commercials net long in the large S&P contract.
#9
Posted 15 June 2007 - 07:36 PM
#10
Posted 15 June 2007 - 07:59 PM