4 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

This sell that we had was the first good one in some time and they're always hard. Often fake outs. Sentiment has shifted a little too much to the wrong side for me to be confident about a sell off. I'm about at a toss up on up or down here. A lot of stuff has improved dramatically, yet there's a lot of Bears in some areas still. I'm thinking hard about going flat IT and just play it very short term from here in either or both directions. We'll see after all the data is in on Monday morning. Mark

[thespookyone]

Mark-I hear what you are saying, and eagerly await your data. I have to say though that while I'd like to get a corresponding signal from sentiment-to me, there has been some significant speaking with dollars. I find it very hard to ignore the index put call ratio at 2.21 at the end of Friday, while the equity put call ratio sits at .47 The .47 is a level that is pretty hard for me to ignore, and has paid me quite well in the past to notice. Spooky

[Cirrus]

This sell that we had was the first good one in some time and they're always hard. Often fake outs.

Sentiment has shifted a little too much to the wrong side for me to be confident about a sell off.

I'm about at a toss up on up or down here. A lot of stuff has improved dramatically, yet there's a lot of Bears in some areas still.

I'm thinking hard about going flat IT and just play it very short term from here in either or both directions.

We'll see after all the data is in on Monday morning.

Mark

This is precisely what I've done. Just trying to make contact with the ball daily and get on first. I've been combing through plenty of groups and charts and doing plenty of ST and VST trading. The materials sector still has plenty of charts to trade from the bullish side--especially stocks listed on the .v or .to exchanges. Shorts aren't too difficult to find, either. I am finding the indexes very difficult to trade on all but short intraday time frames.

[OEXCHAOS]

Spooky, the big problem with options data right now is that it is all screwed up by op-ex on Friday. I can't put much weight on them. Otherwise, I'd be Beared up as all get out. WITHOUT that data, however, we have Bearishness (modest) at Rydex among the dumb money players and Bullishness among the smarter Velocity players. In our polls, we've got a ton of Bears still too. Of course, on the flip side, TheStreet has over 62% Bulls in their poll. TSP talk is not far from a Sell either. I'm watching the data right into Monday. Sentiment is very mixed and very mercurial. I'm getting a funky feeling that we're going to snookered by a double fake out-maybe down a bit, then up hard triggering buys and stops, then chop, and THEN down in earnest. We'll see. I'm still writing and accumulating data. Mark

[thespookyone]

Mark-Thanks for your take-allways valued and appreciated. In the sense of op-ex, you could also consider the numbers for the Feb op-ex. From an initial glance, they could have been viewed the same way. Of course they were followed with a small 5 point range or so-then a tank. The difference I see there, is that the Feb numbers were not as bearish as these are. I'd be lying if I said that I wouldn't just love to see that equity number stay somewhat stagnant-while the index one took off upward here-as volatility is the true payer in this market. I also the possibility of a "double head fake" here, which is why I am totally tuned in to what happens in that 1515 area-but that should be easy to read live,imho. We either get support there and turn around-or, possibly we get there, turn around just a bit, and blow straight through it on the second cut-in the same day=another version of the double head fake. Exciting times for traders here, where a good read, and quick reaction will be key. Again, TRULY looking forward to your data here, which is extremely valuable at junctures like this. Spooky