What I can tell you about things in the Sacramento area right now is that every 20th car I see on the road right now is new, and that homes "outside the zip code" are now turning in about 21 days, and selling within 2% of the asking price.
Sacramento-based researcher TrendGraphix reported 14,704 existing homes for sale at May's end in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties. That was 678 more than in April. By comparison, inventory grew last year by 1,807 homes from April to May.
"I think we're really starting to see a little more hesitance on the part of the seller to put their home on the market," said Anthony Graham, senior financial analyst at Sacramento-based Lyon Real Estate.
But he said the region is on pace "to exceed the (inventory) record as we get into the summer months." That July 2006 record is 15,474 existing homes for sale.
Source
OK...so you decided to use the last three paragraphs in this article...the last thing in which a writer wants to leave with the reader as to the reason why the piece was written in the first place - and applied a
as if to say my comments may be questionable?
In reality though, the first quoted paragraph shows a YoY reduction of inventory...which is stabilizing.
The second quoted paragraph then goes on to say that sellers are a little more hesitant to sell...which again is stabilizing - especially when it's usually in the spring when most homes go up for sale.
And the third quoted paragraph suggests that there should be more inventory this year than last year's record levels. Question - should we really be surprised if this happens when we consider that there is more homes available on the market compared to last year, and therefore, the
percentage of total inventory on the market might actually be
LOWER than last year? And if the current trend of declining sellers continues, whose to say that we'll even challenge last years highs?
Yes, context is everything.
It has been the forecast of many real estate bears that with higher interest rates, and lower credit worthiness, this combination would bring the price of the median home lower than at the 2005/2006 price tops, and this would lead to an overall decline in the equity markets. To this juncture, we have seen a choppy correction in the real estate area (with some areas showing up to 20% declines, but others with 20% increases), but still, it's not quite enough to feel satisfied, nor has it given the desired bearish results to stocks.
So, maybe something else is going on? - or - is the high amount of liquidity in the financial system an overwhelming foe to this same bearish forecast?
All I know is is what this article also shows:
"DataQuick reported 3,211 new and existing homes changed hands in May in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties. That was a 336-home increase from April and reflects sales opened in late March and April
and
Median sales prices of all new and existing homes rose from April levels in Amador, El Dorado, Sacramento, Yolo and Yuba. Prices in Sacramento County rose from $341,500 to $345,000 and in El Dorado County from $430,000 to $488,000. They dropped from $450,000 to $429,00 in Placer County."
And this fits very nicely into what I'm seeing of late...stabilization.
Whether it continues or not is still yet to be seen.
But then again, I guess, "what we see depends mainly on what we look for", isn't it?
Fib
