8 replies to this topic

[NAV]

the better it is for the bulls here !!. For the longer the correction takes, there's the danger of the 120-min rolling over. Folks who understand momentum concepts understand what i am talking about. And BTW, don't confuse momentum with just a simple Oscillator. If we spike down quickly, the trend traders would jump in with both the hands to buy the spike down as their EMA crossover configuration would still be intact. The slower the correction ensues, the dip dogs will keep accumulating until their EMA configuration breaks from bullish to bearish. And then the momo guys will take over. By then, if the 120-min has rolled over, all hell will break loose and the longs will be rushing for exits and the market will be pounded with fresh shorts. Something i am keeping an eye on at this point.....

[denleo]

NAV, what correction are you talking about? After 3 up days in a row, we are unchanged. Are you waiting for some downside that will last an hour or two? That would be reasonable. This is the usual pattern of waiting for sellers to show up. When we realize that they are not showing up, we'll go up. Denleo

[jawndissedi]

the better it is for the bulls here !!. For the longer the correction takes, there's the danger of the 120-min rolling over. Folks who understand momentum concepts understand what i am talking about. And BTW, don't confuse momentum with just a simple Oscillator.

If we spike down quickly, the trend traders would jump in with both the hands to buy the spike down as their EMA crossover configuration would still be intact. The slower the correction ensues, the dip dogs will keep accumulating until their EMA configuration breaks from bullish to bearish. And then the momo guys will take over. By then, if the 120-min has rolled over, all hell will break loose and the longs will be rushing for exits and the market will be pounded with fresh shorts. Something i am keeping an eye on at this point.....

Interesting analysis -- thanks for posting.

[Tor]

I still havent given up on my acceleration scenario. But it must happen sooooooooon IMO.

[NAV]

NAV, what correction are you talking about? After 3 up days in a row, we are unchanged. Are you waiting for some downside that will last an hour or two? That would be reasonable. This is the usual pattern of waiting for sellers to show up. When we realize that they are not showing up, we'll go up.

Denleo

If we spike down quickly here, then i am not expecting much - around ES 1538-40. If we screw around longer and form a distributive slope with 120-min rolling over, then it could be much deeper.

[thespookyone]

" And then the momo guys will take over. By then, if the 120-min has rolled over, all hell will break loose and the longs will be rushing for exits and the market will be pounded with fresh shorts. Something i am keeping an eye on at this point" Nice take, BUT-volatility is our friend-lets keep it sloooooow. Spooky

[greenie]

the better it is for the bulls here !!.

Isn't it opposite of what you said during the weekend? You said, unless we see 30 points drop on monday, it is bullish. Not being critical here - just trying to understand, what changed in your system in last few hours.

[NAV]

the better it is for the bulls here !!.

Isn't it opposite of what you said during the weekend? You said, unless we see 30 points drop on monday, it is bullish. Not being critical here - just trying to understand, what changed in your system in last few hours.

30 point drop would have been bearish cuz that would change the trend. A 10 point drop done quicly is profit taking and is bullish, while a 10 point slow drop (with appropriate volume and breadth) is distributive. 120-min is still on a buy,so nothing has changed in that regard. If it flips to sell, i will update. Market changes everyday and presents us new information and we can only ignore them at our financial risk.

[greenie]

30 point drop would have been bearish cuz that would change the trend. A 10 point drop done quicly is profit taking and is bullish, while a 10 point slow drop (with appropriate volume and breadth) is distributive. 120-min is still on a buy,so nothing has changed in that regard. If it flips to sell, i will update. Market changes everyday and presents us new information and we can only ignore them at our financial risk.

Thanks NAV. Good luck with your trading, G.