4 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

whether or not one wants to accept the premise that a nominal 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows is due in mid/late july, inspection of the nominal 20 wk cycle, one of the most easily tracked and phased cycles, indicates the market is now 13+ weeks along on this cycle with it's bottom due mid/late july, the previous 20 wk cycle having bottomed in march. conditions as we move toward this upcoming july cycle low indicate internal weakness in the markets, the duration of this weakness suggesting a cycle bottom of more import is coming . the charts below will be envelope charts for INDU and SPX and the breadth charts will be 21 day and 10 day sma charts of NYSE advance/declines. both breadth charts show a continuing deterioration of breadth momentum. we just saw a test of the highs for INDU and SPX. the INDU envelope/NYSE 21 day breadth system remains on it's sell signal, the rise of the breadth line back over the 0 line does not negate the signal. the 10 day breadth line is not part of the system but it does provide shorter term evidence of strength or weakness and it has recently remained in negative territory despite the indexes testing their highs.
i remain short es's and will look to add based on market action.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p87170070406&r=4872.png

21 day breadth

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p50425025152&r=9311.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p76015952240&r=5669.png

10 day breadth

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p22168357440&r=2947.png

[esther231]

Much thanks.

[Woody]

Airedale.......another quality post.........can you share your parameters for the Envelopes..... Thanks CW

[airedale88]

2% and 4% envelopes on a 21 day simple mv avg. i also will look at the 3% envelope.

[Woody]

2% and 4% envelopes on a 21 day simple mv avg. i also will look at the 3% envelope.

Thanks I guesstimated the 2 & 4 but used a 20 ema.

The ST outlook changes if Breadth accelerates from here......