8 replies to this topic

[wyocowboy]

...quite the distance from Wall Street, the view from the eastern plains of Wyoming may be a bit different than what others see. ( Hat is off to Hiker from the Northwest area of Wyoming - not because he is in the same sparsely populated state, but because his methodology, or system is very sound in my opinion.) I have been stunned at the amount of bearishness on this board for several weeks now. You really need to take a look at how you arrive at your conclusions. I believe it was thespookyone that spoke of perceptions vs. reality -( please forgive me spooky, I am not picking on you - just trying to recall a post you made). Take a look at the facts - check the COT data - do you think it is bearish or did someone else tell you it was bearish? Insiders -are they selling heavily? Check the facts. Are the chart indicators you watch really leading indicators, or are they leading you astray? Does the Fed Model work, or is it a bunch of baloney? Is the CPC data a good read, or will it revert to the longer term mean that is consistent with the market gains over time? Do you ever question yourself, or do you ally with others of a similar opinion and toughen your stance? Do you blame the Government, the Fed, the politicians, the public, or others for your lagging the general market returns? Not many will read this post, but for those that do, remember to always check yourself and your market leads, to see if they are still working. It is obvious that many here are very bearish without any verifiable data to back up their opinion. From the broad market data to individual equities, it is very obvious to me the market is heading higher. Having spent a few days checking on myself ( i.e., my own prejudice or bias), I am confident that the market is heading higher over the next 6 months. One of my favorite indicators was the specialist short sale ratio - unfortunately it no longer seems to be of value - along with some of my volume indicators. Here is the catch - at some point in the the future, they may become reliable indicators again. Anyway, I figure most folks here answering the nightly poll must be full of baloney - anyone fully short for that long would have gone belly up - even with tight stops.... Do the math, look for yourself - forgive me for saying the truth - you are a good fade......

[NAV]

...quite the distance from Wall Street, the view from the eastern plains of Wyoming may be a bit different than what others see. ( Hat is off to Hiker from the Northwest area of Wyoming - not because he is in the same sparsely populated state, but because his methodology, or system is very sound in my opinion.)

I have been stunned at the amount of bearishness on this board for several weeks now. You really need to take a look at how you arrive at your conclusions. I believe it was thespookyone that spoke of perceptions vs. reality -( please forgive me spooky, I am not picking on you - just trying to recall a post you made).

Take a look at the facts - check the COT data - do you think it is bearish or did someone else tell you it was bearish?

Insiders -are they selling heavily? Check the facts.

Are the chart indicators you watch really leading indicators, or are they leading you astray?

Does the Fed Model work, or is it a bunch of baloney?

Is the CPC data a good read, or will it revert to the longer term mean that is consistent with the market gains over time?

Do you ever question yourself, or do you ally with others of a similar opinion and toughen your stance?

Do you blame the Government, the Fed, the politicians, the public, or others for your lagging the general market returns?

Not many will read this post, but for those that do, remember to always check yourself and your market leads, to see if they are still working. It is obvious that many here are very bearish without any verifiable data to back up their opinion. From the broad market data to individual equities, it is very obvious to me the market is heading higher. Having spent a few days checking on myself ( i.e., my own prejudice or bias), I am confident that the market is heading higher over the next 6 months.

One of my favorite indicators was the specialist short sale ratio - unfortunately it no longer seems to be of value - along with some of my volume indicators. Here is the catch - at some point in the the future, they may become reliable indicators again.

Anyway, I figure most folks here answering the nightly poll must be full of baloney - anyone fully short for that long would have gone belly up - even with tight stops....

Do the math, look for yourself - forgive me for saying the truth - you are a good fade......

Why do these kind of posts come when the market is trading at or near the highs ?

Why don't these kind of posts come when the market has those nasty 5% corrections ? (when it will be of use to some people).

Do these kind of posts reflect one's personal comfort and confidence, given that the market is trading near the highs ?

And when you say "you are a good fade" to the board indiscriminately, does that reflect your own insecurity ?

Given your confidence that the market is headed higher over the next 6 months, let's open a pseudo position at SPX 1533. Let's see if that position remains profitable or suffers a loss and that would be a good test of rhetoric vs market reality !. Again, forgive me, i am not picking on you, but trying to see if i can make money off of your post ........

Edited by NAV, 20 June 2007 - 01:37 AM.

[wyocowboy]

Challenge accepted - 1533 is the number - the date is 6-20-07 - I don't post much so it should be easy to look up - sorry I didn't post when the market was lower, I was busy scanning and buying - I don't post to impress anyone, I post when I am bored.

[OEXCHAOS]

OK, keep keepin' it civil, guys. One thing of note, you've both been right the better part of the time, as I recollect, and that may be instructive. For my part, I've stated numerous times that we're nowhere near the end of the Bull market and that all we are due is a correction (and as of this morning, I have a leading indicator that says we've got something approaching a 90% chance of some appreciable weakness within a couple days and not much --if any-- upside prior to such). I've made money on the short side only while day trading. You can be longer-term Bullish and still make a few shekels on the short side and you can even ride a larger correction for a profit. You don't HAVE to ride every pullback out. I would say that you HAVE to remember that we are in a Bull market that shows no signs of ending. If your investment thesis is always that the end of the Bull is at hand, then you're going to lose money or at least miss huge opportunities. M

[Tor]

i kept mon sayig the bonds were delluded. Sure this may be the comment that marks a reversal, but so far that comment has been correct. The fact is that the bull gets short down here and it isnt a fairly balanced board in my view.

[OEXCHAOS]

Tor, fast typing may be muddying your message. I'm confused (not that my typing was much better--I'm editing mine next) Mark

[rkd80]

Hi Mark,

What kind of condition would push your signal to trigger? Those odds sure sounds favorable, I would go all in on those kind of odds.

-rkd

Tor, fast typing may be muddying your message. I'm confused (not that my typing was much better--I'm editing mine next)

Mark

[OEXCHAOS]

technically, it's triggered. It's just so borderline close. I'm playing it that way, with the understanding that I may take some heat. Of course, my other work says look lower today. We're looking for a short set up. Mark

[rkd80]

in the past when the signal has triggered has there been a correlation with it's ferocity/depth? The bears here are very touch and go types, no one is expecting any kind of measured move - I am curious as to what type of sell-offs DID occur once the signal went into effect. Although I have noticed recently that a lot of my TA is failing and patterns are not repeating as they have in the past 3-4 years.

technically, it's triggered. It's just so borderline close. I'm playing it that way, with the understanding that I may take some heat.

Of course, my other work says look lower today. We're looking for a short set up.

Mark