11 replies to this topic

[spielchekr]

[Tor]

Looks like the bear MAY have dropped the ball...........AGAIN. Still a watchin'.

[rkd80]

2nd omen in a week? rut roh.

Looks like the bear MAY have dropped the ball...........AGAIN. Still a watchin'.

[spielchekr]

Looks like the bear MAY have dropped the ball...........AGAIN. Still a watchin'.

Having looked at the "instant replay", I concede that you're tehcnically correct in questioning it because the lows did not exceed 2.2%, we only met it (if you look at a smaller time fram like 5 days, it is actually 2.17%). My memory malfunctioned there. So we have simply gotten as close as we possibly can to a confirmation without actually producing a confirmation. And no doubt the market wanted it to be precisely that way.

"...The traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen is that the daily number of NYSE New 52 Week Highs and the Daily number of New 52 Week Lows must both be so high as to have the lesser of the two be greater than (my emphasis) 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day."



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&i=t10581533999&a=104666396&r=6015.png

~and~

"for a confirmed Hindenburg Omen, in other words for it to be "official," there must be more than one signal within a 36 day period, i.e., there must be a cluster of Hindenburg Omens (defined as two or more) to substantially increase the probability of a coming stock market plunge."



Sources:

http://www.safehaven...rticle-4937.htm

http://en.wikipedia....Hindenburg_Omen

Edited by spielchekr, 21 June 2007 - 06:08 PM.

[selecto]

The character of the NYA has changed considerably since the days of Hindenberg. Half of the names are very interest rate sensitive and trade like bonds, where we have seen some turblence of late. I wonder what one would get using NYA operating companies only?

[spielchekr]

BULLS NEED TO SELL, BEARS NEED TO BUY!

Both new highs and new lows must be greater than 74. We've got that.
http://online.wsj.co..._...&refresh=on
All that's required is keeping the close above the red dashed line (2the 0ma +/- slope delimiter line currently at 1508.26).
That would seal it for today as the confirmation day.
So will we rally on the + divergences, or avoid pulling that trigger?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&i=p54420046103&r=8819.png

Edited by spielchekr, 22 June 2007 - 01:02 PM.

[spielchekr]

Oops!! Correction: > 1507.51

BULLS NEED TO SELL, BEARS NEED TO BUY!

Both new highs and new lows must be greater than 74. We've got that.
http://online.wsj.co..._...&refresh=on
All that's required is keeping the close above the red dashed line (2the 0ma +/- slope delimiter line currently at 1508.26).
That would seal it for today as the confirmation day.
So will we rally on the + divergences, or avoid pulling that trigger?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&i=p54420046103&r=8819.png

[spielchekr]

Oops!! Correction: > 1507.51

Just watching the crazy jumps away from and back to this price. Must be Da Cheif's MUPT at work.

[spielchekr]

I will cover my shorts

[spielchekr]

Oops again... I was posting an $SPX chart (sorry ). That was a confirmation signal since the 20ma stayed positive on $NYA, if I use WSJ's THTL count.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&i=t82797021297&r=4744.png

Either Stockcharts or WSJ is wrong about the THTL count (WSJ says 88 each of 3440 issues, or 2.6% each. Stockcharts reads 2.2% as I post this.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p43725529786&a=104666396&r=8153.png

BTW, I'm not trading on the Hindenburg signals, I'm just watching them for some context.