3 replies to this topic

[thespookyone]

I went on a five day vacation, leaving last Monday. Went to Virginia, it was very relaxing and the weather was great. Before I left, I added a ton of spy puts to my QQQQ puts. because of-simplicity. I posted the many reasons I was bearish before I left, but the most important one-was the easiest to see. The equity pc had dropped to .47, while the index pc had gone to 2.21. I posted that this alignment had usually made me a ton of money in the past,and that I was not concerned that it was after options expiration, as the same conditions were present after options expiration in Feb. So, I did what I do at those levels, and in the simple sense-the same thing happened-I made a ton(I know you won't like that "ton" comment, Mr. Dev-so in the way you prefer it represented-it was 15.4 percent). All I really did was anticipate that it would NOT "be different this time"-and, it wasn't. The "Big Bounce", possibly to new highs-will we get it? Sure, we could get it-but simplicity tells me we won't. When I look at Teapartys' charts, I certainly see the possibilities. Although Teaparty is a MUCH better ewaver than me-I remain unconvinced on how firm of a count we can get here-or even if it can be properly defined at this point. Could the SPX bounce here-sure, it is a bit oversold-the real question is-how far? I think the how far will go lengths to defining the count. A few simple things bother me relative to a surge to new highs. First, I guess I'm not the only one that saw the sell side volume in the SPX Friday-no small thing, and OUCH! I guess we can try to explain it away, but as far as I can see, it has only been that high less times than you can count on one hand in the last decade or so-so I'm not going to try. The drop we had Friday, to me, represented not just people shorting-but bulls selling (the index pc and equity pc changed little at the close of Friday from the close of Thursday-it just looks like plain old selling). Much like in Feb., it looks like the SPX has a lot of negative MACD divergence to work off-and I don't think this drop has that bit done yet. I'm wanting to see Mark put some solid sentiment readings up, but in the meantime-I know what I've seen on the board here. By Monday, the "perma-bulls" were basically posting "all clear" posts, and the usual "how many hours will the corection be"-they come back to bullish awful fast, considering what the market has been doing-to me, that is bearish, as they fail to see risk. On the other hand, bears seem ready to capitulate quickly, afraid of a quick smack upward that will take all their profits. Posts of bear traps are easily seen-where were the posts on how bulls were getting lured in on Thursday? I see no talk of how the dip buyers are being punished. So, let me ask-how are all the dip buyers from Thursday feeling about now? Dip buyers certainly helped fuel the last helium inspired move up,but, exactly how much punishment will they take before they change their path=my guess is, not much. As Teaparty mentioned, the internals are just plain ugly, to me that isn't providing a great backdrop for a run to new highs. Housing data again this week-I doubt it will be pretty, and it strikes close to home for many-as their main equity remains in their homes. We also have the Fed ready to talk again, and something tells me that many are expecting them to remove the "elevated risk of inflation" language they have been using-which I think will NOT happen-that may let more than a few people down. I'll close my SPX puts on the sign of any bounce, only because I'd love to retake them at a higher point-a little higher, or a lot-I'll just wait for the next turn,as patience has truly been a virtue in this market. My Q puts are very close to even right now, but I won't close them quite yet. I may still choose to play in the box with quarterly call options-while lightening up my puts a bit at the same time as entry on the calls, should I start to see a move up coming. I think any move up will be very short lived and expiration for July is a long way away. A big move in the QQQQ's short term would have an in the box play on the quarterlys virtually making my puts free, or dirt cheap-with little cost for the play-and I prefer to hold the puts, as I feel when the q's do breakdown-it will be fast and furious. If I lose the "insurance bet" on my puts, the puts should pay a ton, and I'll mark my loss on the calls as a "sacrifice to the bear Gods" lol. Whether the market is simply correcting, or making a somewhat more complicated move to new highs remains to be seen, but for now-I remain in the simple camp. At this point, what I see so far is a virtual double top-nothing more or less. Good luck trading to all here! Spooky Spooky

[relax]

Interesting!

What makes me a but bullish next week is due to two factors

End of Quarter

and the fact that the S&P 500 trendline from march 2004 top to the february 2007 top has been tested for the last three weeks

it was not broken so I think the market will try and test some resistance levels now

for me bulls need to make things happen this week, after that End of Quarter is over and the bulls are left with little fuel

I went on a five day vacation, leaving last Monday. Went to Virginia, it was very relaxing and the weather was great. Before I left, I added a ton of spy puts to my QQQQ puts. because of-simplicity. I posted the many reasons I was bearish before I left, but the most important one-was the easiest to see. The equity pc had dropped to .47, while the index pc had gone to 2.21.
I posted that this alignment had usually made me a ton of money in the past,and that I was not concerned that it was after options expiration, as the same conditions were present after options expiration in Feb. So, I did what I do at those levels, and in the simple sense-the same thing happened-I made a ton(I know you won't like that "ton" comment, Mr. Dev-so in the way you prefer it represented-it was 15.4 percent). All I really did was anticipate that it would NOT "be different this time"-and, it wasn't.

The "Big Bounce", possibly to new highs-will we get it? Sure, we could get it-but simplicity tells me we won't. When I look at Teapartys' charts, I certainly see the possibilities. Although Teaparty is a MUCH better ewaver than me-I remain unconvinced on how firm of a count we can get here-or even if it can be properly defined at this point. Could the SPX bounce here-sure, it is a bit oversold-the real question is-how far? I think the how far will go lengths to defining the count. A few simple things bother me relative to a surge to new highs. First, I guess I'm not the only one that saw the sell side volume in the SPX Friday-no small thing, and OUCH! I guess we can try to explain it away, but as far as I can see, it has only been that high less times than you can count on one hand in the last decade or so-so I'm not going to try. The drop we had Friday, to me, represented not just people shorting-but bulls selling (the index pc and equity pc changed little at the close of Friday from the close of Thursday-it just looks like plain old selling). Much like in Feb., it looks like the SPX has a lot of negative MACD divergence to work off-and I don't think this drop has that bit done yet. I'm wanting to see Mark put some solid sentiment readings up, but in the meantime-I know what I've seen on the board here. By Monday, the "perma-bulls" were basically posting "all clear" posts, and the usual "how many hours will the corection be"-they come back to bullish awful fast, considering what the market has been doing-to me, that is bearish, as they fail to see risk. On the other hand, bears seem ready to capitulate quickly, afraid of a quick smack upward that will take all their profits. Posts of bear traps are easily seen-where were the posts on how bulls were getting lured in on Thursday? I see no talk of how the dip buyers are being punished. So, let me ask-how are all the dip buyers from Thursday feeling about now? Dip buyers certainly helped fuel the last helium inspired move up,but, exactly how much punishment will they take before they change their path=my guess is, not much. As Teaparty mentioned, the internals are just plain ugly, to me that isn't providing a great backdrop for a run to new highs. Housing data again this week-I doubt it will be pretty, and it strikes close to home for many-as their main equity remains in their homes. We also have the Fed ready to talk again, and something tells me that many are expecting them to remove the "elevated risk of inflation" language they have been using-which I think will NOT happen-that may let more than a few people down. I'll close my SPX puts on the sign of any bounce, only because I'd love to retake them at a higher point-a little higher, or a lot-I'll just wait for the next turn,as patience has truly been a virtue in this market. My Q puts are very close to even right now, but I won't close them quite yet. I may still choose to play in the box with quarterly call options-while lightening up my puts a bit at the same time as entry on the calls, should I start to see a move up coming. I think any move up will be very short lived and expiration for July is a long way away. A big move in the QQQQ's short term would have an in the box play on the quarterlys virtually making my puts free, or dirt cheap-with little cost for the play-and I prefer to hold the puts, as I feel when the q's do breakdown-it will be fast and furious. If I lose the "insurance bet" on my puts, the puts should pay a ton, and I'll mark my loss on the calls as a "sacrifice to the bear Gods" lol. Whether the market is simply correcting, or making a somewhat more complicated move to new highs remains to be seen, but for now-I remain in the simple camp. At this point, what I see so far is a virtual double top-nothing more or less. Good luck trading to all here!

Spooky

Spooky

[thespookyone]

relax-end of quarter may certainly play in, and although I did not mention it, it is on my mind. My only wonder is if they truly choose to get positioned long this time.

[garyp]

relax-end of quarter may certainly play in, and although I did not mention it, it is on my mind. My only wonder is if they truly choose to get positioned long this time.

No bottom yet?
http://www.traders-t...amp;qpid=295817

Meanwhile although the market has come under some selling pressure the 5 Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio hasn't risen significantly above the 1.0 level like has occurred in the past (points when the market was nearing a significant bottom (points C). Thus it appears the recent volatility in the market hasn't scared off many investors.