14 replies to this topic

[NAV]

I went short NQ 1945. I will post the reasons on my blog in a few minutes.

[rkd80]

I went short NQ 1945. I will post the reasons on my blog in a few minutes.

[NAV]

Comments at


http://nav-ta.blogsp.../i-am-torn.html

I went short NQ 1945. I will post the reasons on my blog in a few minutes.

rkd80,

That's right. I mentioned in my blog that i am a good fade at this point.

Edited by NAV, 26 June 2007 - 06:23 AM.

[rkd80]

Your reasoning is quite logical, however i would just like to point out that the market has been climbing up and up for the past 3 months in the face of the very same internal weakness that you mentioned on your blog. If we can plow ahead with out a worry despite all the divergency for months, what is stopping us from making some last gasp rally in the face of the very same weakness? It seems quite difficult to trade off summations.

The reasons you stated are the very reasons why as soon as this rally shows even the slightest weakness I will go 200% short and stay there for weeks.

Comments at


http://nav-ta.blogsp.../i-am-torn.html

I went short NQ 1945. I will post the reasons on my blog in a few minutes.

rkd80,

That's right. I mentioned in my blog that i am a good fade at this point.

[eminimee]

Nav..I'm of the same view..."torn" that is. I won't post the Q's ED again...did enough of that yesterday but the ED is still alive unless yesterdays lows get taken out by a big chunk....however, here is the bull and the bear of it....spx and oex.

Bull scenario on spx...bear on oex. If we put in a bottom on spx yesterday, the ED is still alive and we are in a 3 up (not shown)....the C wave ED is possible but I agree with you regarding internals.. .so I have to lean towards the OEX right now but really still on the fence. ..and quite honestly...I've done well in jumping on the market instead of running in front of it...so will continue to do the same. With these big swings....catching the meat has been relatively easy. Anyways...here's the scoop on spx and oex from my perspective. Sorry for the fact you have to expand these charts to see them properly. Hell...while I'm at it...the Q's chart is at the bottom..



SPX: A FLAT?



The first chart was posted last week with some other targets if the secondary high was a B wave. The 1X1 target is at approx. 1484 and might fit with an ED C wave. If we haven't bottomed at yesterdays low...that's where we are going.....but if 1484 doesn't hold....then I think the target box on the weekly gets hit as we will loose important support there. If we hit that 1484/85 target watch for the Q's to be putting in a higher low than yesterday for a clue, but that may be a tough order if spx sees 1484ish.
I've tagged on the 1997 chart for reference in my comment on the first chart.




Click Here to see Full Sized Image



Click Here to see Full Sized Image



Click Here to see Full Sized Image



Click Here to see Full Sized Image



OEX: H&S top?



Unlike SPX...OEX did make a new high. I had given up on the fact that OEX ended in an ED but perhaps it did and the new high was a B wave of an expanded flat. The H&S measured move would be a fib 21 points down from where it breaks down below the neckline.....Wave A was 22 points so 1.618X22 =35.60 ...both giving measured moves of approx. the 50% retrace level and just below the previous 4th as I've marked where the ED started from.
Keep this in mind IF/WHEN SPX breaks the 1484/85 mark and the ED C wave on spx doesn't work out.



Click Here to see Full Sized Image



http://stockcharts.c...0310&r=6463.png

[gorydog]

I'm looking to execute a strangle on the Q's with front month expiration. We either go up or down from here in a big way. GD

[Venatici]

Does that mean that you see no weakness at all?

[quote name='rkd80' date='Jun 26 2007, 12:32 PM' post='296107']
...
The reasons you stated are the very reasons why as soon as this rally shows even the slightest weakness I will go 200% short and stay there for weeks.
...
[quote name='NAV' post='296104' date='Jun 26 2007, 07:22 AM']
Comments at


http://nav-ta.blogsp.../i-am-torn.html

[jjc]

I went short NQ 1945. I will post the reasons on my blog in a few minutes.

With all due respect here NAV I think you have it wrong. Not the direction of your trade; your trade itself.
Flat is perfectly respectable position if you don't have an edge. Then of course if you do have an edge you
wish to protect (not broadcast to all with a browser) then .... I feel a bit funny here offering you of all people
advice; so I won't.

Good Luck

[NAV]

Nav..I'm of the same view..."torn" that is. I won't post the Q's ED again...did enough of that yesterday but the ED is still alive unless yesterdays lows get taken out by a big chunk....however, here is the bull and the bear of it....spx and oex.

Bull scenario on spx...bear on oex. If we put in a bottom on spx yesterday, the ED is still alive and we are in a 3 up (not shown)....the C wave ED is possible but I agree with you regarding internals.. .so I have to lean towards the OEX right now but really still on the fence. ..and quite honestly...I've done well in jumping on the market instead of running in front of it...so will continue to do the same. With these big swings....catching the meat has been relatively easy. Anyways...here's the scoop on spx and oex from my perspective. Sorry for the fact you have to expand these charts to see them properly. Hell...while I'm at it...the Q's chart is at the bottom..



SPX: A FLAT?



The first chart was posted last week with some other targets if the secondary high was a B wave. The 1X1 target is at approx. 1484 and might fit with an ED C wave. If we haven't bottomed at yesterdays low...that's where we are going.....but if 1484 doesn't hold....then I think the target box on the weekly gets hit as we will loose important support there. If we hit that 1484/85 target watch for the Q's to be putting in a higher low than yesterday for a clue, but that may be a tough order if spx sees 1484ish.
I've tagged on the 1997 chart for reference in my comment on the first chart.




Click Here to see Full Sized Image



Click Here to see Full Sized Image



Click Here to see Full Sized Image



Click Here to see Full Sized Image



OEX: H&S top?



Unlike SPX...OEX did make a new high. I had given up on the fact that OEX ended in an ED but perhaps it did and the new high was a B wave of an expanded flat. The H&S measured move would be a fib 21 points down from where it breaks down below the neckline.....Wave A was 22 points so 1.618X22 =35.60 ...both giving measured moves of approx. the 50% retrace level and just below the previous 4th as I've marked where the ED started from.
Keep this in mind IF/WHEN SPX breaks the 1484/85 mark and the ED C wave on spx doesn't work out.



Click Here to see Full Sized Image



http://stockcharts.c...0310&r=6463.png

TP,

Nice work.

[OEXCHAOS]

I won't post the Q's ED again...did enough of that yesterday but the ED is still alive unless yesterdays lows get taken out by a big chunk....however, here is the bull and the bear of it....spx and oex.

Looking at the NDX sentiment, I fear that it will be suffering from another type of ED.





Nice work you guys.

Mark