8 replies to this topic

[rkd80]

4 main reasons.

1) The CPCE jumped on Monday to levels that we saw in March/April
2) Days of the month. While this is not a science, but 22nd - 31st and first 2 days of the month have strong seasonal tendency to ourperform the rest of the month. We are smack in the middle of them. Check it out:
http://www.tradingma...-the-Answer.cfm
3) This one is obvious but it apepars that we have tested at least on the SPX pre-expiration lows.
4) Bonds will continue to rally for the ST.

This one is less important, but worthy. China finished green after being down almost 2% last night, so they are probably in rally mode as SSEC held the 50MA again! Although they are probably on borrowed time at this point.

[NAV]

rkd80, What are you long and from where ?

Edited by NAV, 26 June 2007 - 06:27 AM.

[rkd80]

rkd80,

What are you long and from where ?

ES: 1510
NQ: 1940 (bigger position)

[OEXCHAOS]

I think we're at a tricky point in the market. I don't think that the low is in, by any means, BUT, we can easily mount a rally here. The OEX P/C says look for it today or tomorrow. EOQ supports as well. I'm worried, though, about a big curve. There's persistent and rising Bullishness in the Naz, despite the weakness. There may be a problem there that has yet to raise it's head, but which could get really ugly. Naz Cum A/D volume is a hair from a Sell. NYSE is already there. In any case, I think that you can be right on either side here, for at least long enough to book profits. Just be careful. This is the part of the decline that I have the most trouble with. Mark

[rkd80]

I agree it is very difficult, because things have become more volatile. THe rallies are as sharp and quick as the sell-offs. Getting caught in the wrong direction can wipe out profits in the blink of an eye. In the IT time frame we are probably at a crucial reversal point that might finally start the long awaited correction. Unlike bottoms of course tops are turbulent and take time to roll-over due to the dip-buyers never giving up. This results in frustration and short covering.

The A/D stuff you mentioned - heh yeah - internals are awful. No doubt about it, they are flat out scary - we are actually worse internally than we were Feb 27th.

This is not a comfortable long position, but the quickness of a potential rally is as appealing now as trying to catch a correction.

I think we're at a tricky point in the market. I don't think that the low is in, by any means, BUT, we can easily mount a rally here. The OEX P/C says look for it today or tomorrow. EOQ supports as well.

I'm worried, though, about a big curve. There's persistent and rising Bullishness in the Naz, despite the weakness. There may be a problem there that has yet to raise it's head, but which could get really ugly.

Naz Cum A/D volume is a hair from a Sell. NYSE is already there.

In any case, I think that you can be right on either side here, for at least long enough to book profits. Just be careful. This is the part of the decline that I have the most trouble with.

Mark

[skyymaster]

Up in the morning and down after lunch, let see if that holds true today

[tradercw]

My short term momentum and BOP analysis is up. Holding SDS and will try to cover on (hopefully) a pullback after the opening. Was short AMGN, will be covering today.

[calmcookie]

You wrote - "I think we're at a tricky point in the market." Thank you for my morning smile, Mark. Let me know when the "tricky point" is over!!! C.C.

[OEXCHAOS]

I know, they're all tricky, but some are trickier than others. I've been pretty confident trading this thing, but now I'm in a tough area for my approach (es). Mark