4 replies to this topic

[rkd80]

Past 2 weeks: Date Published Percent Bullish Percent Bearish 6/27 53.8 20.4 6/20 53.3 18.9 Just a jump in bearishness over the past week, with bulls remaining steady. Along with COT data and a multitude of other factors, certainly hard to rule out test of old highs.

[OEXCHAOS]

Past 2 weeks:

Date Published Percent Bullish Percent Bearish
6/27 53.8 20.4
6/20 53.3 18.9
Just a jump in bearishness over the past week, with bulls remaining steady. Along with COT data and a multitude of other factors, certainly hard to rule out test of old highs.

Is that a big jump?

Strikes me that there are too many stubborn/complacent Bulls, though I don't know the data. Got any history for it?

My read without studying is that this is Bearish, not Bullish.

M

[rkd80]

All i got is about 4 or 5 weeks worth, but there is a chart out there - albeit not a very good one. From a purely number basis there are bearish numbers, we have too many bulls.

However on a short-term basis - and most of us seem to operate on such - the weekly change is noticeable. Typically when bears drop below 20 that signifies that fear is being removed from the market place. The weekly jump means that at least some fear is back. Consequently when bulls rise above 55 - it is not so much fear as outright euphoria. However we have been well over 45 on bulls for a long while now.

We have a looooong way to go before these numbers stabilize. They should be something like 45ish/30ish.

Another way to look at it, is the ratio between bulls and bears. Typically a ratio of above 2.00 is overly bullish and below .60 is overly bearish. The sentiment generally works well, but really screwed up in 2003.

I think you should start collecting these numbers, they come out every week on Tuesday. Soon you will have your own IIS data.

Oh, here is a chart - sort of.

http://www.schaeffer...27_181229CE.jpg

Past 2 weeks:

Date Published Percent Bullish Percent Bearish
6/27 53.8 20.4
6/20 53.3 18.9
Just a jump in bearishness over the past week, with bulls remaining steady. Along with COT data and a multitude of other factors, certainly hard to rule out test of old highs.

Is that a big jump?

Strikes me that there are too many stubborn/complacent Bulls, though I don't know the data. Got any history for it?

My read without studying is that this is Bearish, not Bullish.

M

[OEXCHAOS]

Shoot! That's investors intel. Everybody tracks that. I don't even bother charting it any more. I'll let others do it. The current numbers are Bearish, but they've been bearish for several weeks now. They tend to be early. It's one of those early warning signals for a top of some sort. I don't view this shift as adequate to get me bullish even for a couple days. At least, not by itself. Mark

[rkd80]

heh, yah IIS u dont even bother charting it, because it doesnt do much anymore?

Shoot! That's investors intel. Everybody tracks that. I don't even bother charting it any more. I'll let others do it.

The current numbers are Bearish, but they've been bearish for several weeks now. They tend to be early. It's one of those early warning signals for a top of some sort.

I don't view this shift as adequate to get me bullish even for a couple days. At least, not by itself.

Mark