10 replies to this topic

[zedor]

I had posted previously that May 10 signaled a generational top.

While some index values are above that days top level and some below as of the close yesterday, from a long term perspective the market is in one place since then. (Day traders will argue otherwise)

But looking at the Monthly chart .....

This article gets to the crux of the fundamanetal behind the charts.

Rules 'hiding' trillions in debt
Liability $516,348 per U.S. household
By Dennis Cauchon
USA TODAY

The federal government recorded a $1.3 trillion loss last year — far more than the official $248 billion deficit — when corporate-style accounting standards are used, a USA TODAY analysis shows……….. >>>>> http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19468666/

(Read 3rd para from the bottom to get a good fuzzy feeling. )

The market top is taking time but we are very near the end of the bull market of our generation.

Supporting that is a very rapid deterioration of ;

Banking sentiment (Bear Sterns)
Political Poll Numbers (Presidents own party now bailing)
Real Estate
Overl all poll numbers re the direction of the nation

And technically the charts suck wind.
The brew is getting ugly.

Edited by zedor, 28 June 2007 - 03:12 AM.

[Russ]

And technically the charts suck wind.
The brew is getting ugly.

Exactly how does this chart suck?

[zedor]

How does that long term chart suck wind? Ha -- many many ways. I wont list all but for starters ....

I have marked a few below.

Wedgies and red lines at previous similar great spots as we sit in the current time frame.

[Russ]

You are ignoring the fact that nyse has broken above the 3rd line from the bottom which is very bullish in the long term. Also your two red lines in the middle did not product serious panics until cci hit the upper cyan line. Your upper pink line does not mean a thing, it is just a crudely drawn line that could have been placed in many places. Those lines I drew are fixed point lines, I am in agreement with Don Wolanchuk (da cheif) that we are entering primary wave 3 which is going to take the dow to at least 20,000. As Roger Dodger's tagline says... 'All lies and jest in the end a man sees what he wants and ignores the rest'.

[zedor]

You are ignoring the fact that nyse has broken above the 3rd line from the bottom which is very bullish in the long term. Also your two red lines in the middle did not product serious panics until cci hit the upper cyan line. Your upper pink line does not mean a thing, it is just a crudely drawn line that could have been placed in many places. Those lines I drew are fixed point lines, I am in agreement with Don Wolanchuk (da cheif) that we are entering primary wave 3 which is going to take the dow to at least 20,000.

As Roger Dodger's tagline says... 'All lies and jest in the end a man sees what he wants and ignores the rest'.

You are ignoring the fact that you need to look at a chart in the context of a bankrupt Federal Government that shows a net operating loss of over a trillion dollars last year per the article, yet proclaim boldly a minor deficit of 200 some odd billion. When you add both together its UGLY. Bankrupt and kitted to new supposed highs.


There are volumes of other arguments and reasons why the technical sucks wind -- you happened to ask what sucks about the particular chart you posted. My computer graphics skills are not the issue -- what I see in the chart is.


Best of luck. Silly to argue time will tell.

Edited by zedor, 28 June 2007 - 07:46 AM.

[Russ]

You are ignoring the fact that nyse has broken above the 3rd line from the bottom which is very bullish in the long term. Also your two red lines in the middle did not product serious panics until cci hit the upper cyan line. Your upper pink line does not mean a thing, it is just a crudely drawn line that could have been placed in many places. Those lines I drew are fixed point lines, I am in agreement with Don Wolanchuk (da cheif) that we are entering primary wave 3 which is going to take the dow to at least 20,000.

As Roger Dodger's tagline says... 'All lies and jest in the end a man sees what he wants and ignores the rest'.

You are ignoring the fact that you need to look at a chart in the context of a bankrupt Federal Government that shows a net operating loss of over a trillion dollars last year per the article, yet proclaim boldly a minor deficit of 200 some odd billion. When you add both together its UGLY. Bankrupt and kitted to new supposed highs.


There are volumes of other arguments and reasons why the technical sucks wind -- you happened to ask what sucks about the particular chart you posted. My computer graphics skills are not the issue -- what I see in the chart is.


Best of luck. Silly to argue time will tell.

How long have you been bearish? Aren't you the guy that was bearish since 2002-2003?

If you want to get into fundamentals as Wolanchuk says the world has embraced capitalism and consumerism - it is just getting going, American corporations are selling large amounts of high tech goods to Asia.

On the debt front I agree it is going to be a problem eventually, question is when?

[zedor]

You are ignoring the fact that nyse has broken above the 3rd line from the bottom which is very bullish in the long term. Also your two red lines in the middle did not product serious panics until cci hit the upper cyan line. Your upper pink line does not mean a thing, it is just a crudely drawn line that could have been placed in many places. Those lines I drew are fixed point lines, I am in agreement with Don Wolanchuk (da cheif) that we are entering primary wave 3 which is going to take the dow to at least 20,000.

As Roger Dodger's tagline says... 'All lies and jest in the end a man sees what he wants and ignores the rest'.

You are ignoring the fact that you need to look at a chart in the context of a bankrupt Federal Government that shows a net operating loss of over a trillion dollars last year per the article, yet proclaim boldly a minor deficit of 200 some odd billion. When you add both together its UGLY. Bankrupt and kitted to new supposed highs.


There are volumes of other arguments and reasons why the technical sucks wind -- you happened to ask what sucks about the particular chart you posted. My computer graphics skills are not the issue -- what I see in the chart is.


Best of luck. Silly to argue time will tell.

How long have you been bearish? Aren't you the guy that was bearish since 2002-2003?

If you want to get into fundamentals as Wolanchuk says the world has embraced capitalism and consumerism - it is just getting going, American corporations are selling large amounts of high tech goods to Asia.

On the debt front I agree it is going to be a problem eventually, question is when?

Please dont perpetuate misinformation.



I was exiled off a bear board for not being bearish every day. I posted here that I was early and wrong but that eventually we will see a top this year. I stayed mostly silent and waited ( did a few nice long trades along the way)


Now that I see a top potential (its all about odds and set up) I have posted my thoughts.


Wolanchuck is a good technical guy on many levels but no one is infalibble. Capitalism by its nature is cyclical and prone to booms and busts. Just cause the world has embraced capitalism does not mean that the business cycle has been repealed.


Actually the business cycle has been amplified by the unified global market and information availability. Our debt is China's problem as much as ours.

Edited by zedor, 28 June 2007 - 08:33 AM.

[Russ]

Please dont perpetuate misinformation.

I was exiled off a bear board for not being bearish every day. I posted here that I was early and wrong but that eventually we will see a top this year. I stayed mostly silent and waited ( did a few nice long trades along the way)

Now that I see a top potential (its all about odds and set up) I have posted my thoughts.

Wolanchuck is a good technical guy on many levels but no one is infalibble. Capitalism by its nature is cyclical and prone to booms and busts. Just cause the world has embraced capitalism does not mean that the business cycle has been repealed.

Actually the business cycle has been amplified by the unified global market and information availability. Our debt is China's problem as much as ours.

The next business cycle low should show up in 2011 based on Martin Armstrong's 8.6 year cycle model. Things should stay strong until 2009. Did you notice my other post showing the commercials have gone long the sp500? They are usually right, the public sucks as larry williams says.

[zedor]

Please dont perpetuate misinformation.

I was exiled off a bear board for not being bearish every day. I posted here that I was early and wrong but that eventually we will see a top this year. I stayed mostly silent and waited ( did a few nice long trades along the way)

Now that I see a top potential (its all about odds and set up) I have posted my thoughts.

Wolanchuck is a good technical guy on many levels but no one is infallible. Capitalism by its nature is cyclical and prone to booms and busts. Just cause the world has embraced capitalism does not mean that the business cycle has been repealed.

Actually the business cycle has been amplified by the unified global market and information availability. Our debt is China's problem as much as ours.

The next business cycle low should show up in 2011 based on Martin Armstrong's 8.6 year cycle model. Things should stay strong until 2009. Did you notice my other post showing the commercials have gone long the sp500? They are usually right, the public sucks as larry williams says.

Armstrong sits in prison so whether he has had a chance to review and update his work is an open question,

I have learned that multi year forecasts are dangerous things to peg things on especially made by others years ago. Yes its good to take a stab at them but I am continually updating and checking the progress and behavior of the market to see if its in line with such a forecast.

Hitching ones investment horse to Armstrong, Prechter, Wollie, or whomever is fraught with danger. Better to listen to all of them and triangulate and think it through. Each guru will have a hot streak but also a cold one. Past performance is no guarantee of future success.

Edited by zedor, 28 June 2007 - 08:49 AM.

[Russ]

Armstrong sits in prison so whether he has had a chance to review and update his work is an open question,

I have learned that multi year forecasts are dangerous things to peg things on especially made by others years ago. Yes its good to take a stab at them but I am continually updating and checking the progress and behavior of the market to see if its in line with such a forecast.

Hitching ones investment horse to Armstrong, Prechter, Wollie, or whomever is fraught with danger. Better to listen to all of them and triangulate and think it through. Each guru will have a hot streak but also a cold one. Past performance is no guarantee of future success.

I am well aware of Mr. Armstrong's plight, I have a weblog dedicated to his work and troubles: http://princetonecon...a....6 Yr Cycle

I have studied his model for almost 2 decades, imho there is nothing better out there. The next business cycle low will be in 2011.45 which translates into 06/18/11 this date is carved in stone, nothing will change it.
This private cycle we are in will peak in 2032 after that big trouble is likely.

I do my own work as well and as you saw with my chart I totally disagree with your interpretation...that's what makes a market isn't it...buyers and sellers, you are a seller. To quote Armstrong: "Inflation is built into the system." We can expect more intense inflation down the road, eventually a hyper-inflation is likely and that will be the ruin of our civilization.