14 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

[blackprince]

Well ifin Wollie gets his 2645 on the COMPQ all you are going to see is bear pelts.

[OEXCHAOS]

It could happen. The late volume on Friday and today is both surprising to me and Bullish. Sneaky bastages. When they decide to get goofy, they get goofy and it sure looks like they're about to get goofy. Mark

[rkd80]

mark, i do not understand why this was such a surprise today, i always felt that seasonality and cycles trump TA and by seasonality I mean daily/weekly patterns. I think it's accepted that the few days prior to 4th of july tend to be positive. I dont think we ever know why on a fundamental level they are positive, but I am sure there is a good explanation. The 1st and 2nd trading days of the month also tend to be quite positive, but the can change immediately after the 4th and has a much more negative bias heading into early next week. Starting to short EOD of tomorrow might not be such a bad idea from a probability stand-point. -rkd

[eminimee]

Some of us bought the low Friday..
Very wary of Q's 48.50..either we take it out with gusto...or we head down hard and heavy with an uncommon divergence with SPX.



http://www.traders-t...showtopic=72196



http://stockcharts.c...0310&r=7148.png

[ogm]

Some of us bought on Thursday But that said, the 60 min summation is in the selling range, though isn't slowing down yet. To me that means we'll probably get more upside tomorrow, but then its time to start looking for a pullback. I'm actually kinda torn, since I'm not bullish on the indexes but very bullish on quite a few individual stocks. Added AMAT, TKC, CIG, XEL, TSL to my long portfolio today. And added MBI and MCO to short portfolio. However many weekly charts on huge amounts of other stocks are very suspect. I'll take a wild guess and say that this will be a very uneven market. With no uniformity. Financials probably have the worst charts. And many closed in the red today. Not a good sign.

Edited by ogm, 02 July 2007 - 04:13 PM.

[BigBadBear]

Semi, ur so bullish its begining to worry me...though I need to see about 5 more people high five you to get really worried. I guess you can count my post as Highfive #1

[OEXCHAOS]

mark,

i do not understand why this was such a surprise today, i always felt that seasonality and cycles trump TA and by seasonality I mean daily/weekly patterns. I think it's accepted that the few days prior to 4th of july tend to be positive. I dont think we ever know why on a fundamental level they are positive, but I am sure there is a good explanation.

The 1st and 2nd trading days of the month also tend to be quite positive, but the can change immediately after the 4th and has a much more negative bias heading into early next week.

Starting to short EOD of tomorrow might not be such a bad idea from a probability stand-point.

-rkd

The VOLUME (on the ES) is the surprise. I didn't expect it. It implies a great deal of care is warranted on the short side.

I predicted a rally today, but I figured it would be a low volume affair.

Sentiment is getting Bearish again, too.

M


P.S. Teaparty, nice trading, too. I note you've been pretty "ON" here for a while.

M

[pdx5]

mark,

i do not understand why this was such a surprise today, i always felt that seasonality and cycles trump TA and by seasonality I mean daily/weekly patterns. I think it's accepted that the few days prior to 4th of july tend to be positive. I dont think we ever know why on a fundamental level they are positive, but I am sure there is a good explanation.

The 1st and 2nd trading days of the month also tend to be quite positive, but the can change immediately after the 4th and has a much more negative bias heading into early next week.

Starting to short EOD of tomorrow might not be such a bad idea from a probability stand-point.

-rkd

Could be explained by the fact that I used to contribute 26.5% of wages into
tax deferred accounts on 1st of every month. Now ofcourse I am retired
but wife still contributes. The 26.5% = 5% of mine + 9% matched by
employer + 12.5% SRA (salary reduction agreement) into 403B plan.

[diogenes227]

And with the McClellan Summation indices for the NYSE and the Nasdaq turning up today, this is a rally that should run into August sometime. If they run their normal cycle, there will be dimes on the downside and dollars on the upside. What could abort the cycle? Maybe the U.S. Dollar breaking support here and going into freefall. Then again, that might abort a lot more things.