4 replies to this topic

[Rich]

Our model continues to give an UP signal. I think it is possible to see a repeat of last year. The chart below shows that the rally started in July.

Have a great holiday,
Rich

[rkd80]

last july? how is that even a comparison.... we were bottoming then with all the breadth indicators stabilizing after a complete reset. Instead we have horrible internals yet instead of coming out of a 1.5 month slide the market did the opposite. I dont think the comparison is justifiable.

[Rich]

I dont think the comparison is justifiable.

It probably isn't. I really don't place much weight on seasonals, except for the September-October timeframe. Even then, I wouldn't trade on it. Last year, for example, seasonals probably kept many people out of the market. The market rallied through this period.

Regards,
Rich

[Rich]

Our model continues to give an UP signal.

I should have mentioned that our forecast is based on a three-week time horizon. UP means that we expect the slope of the closing daily DJIA values over the next three weeks to be positive from today.

For more details, go here.

Regards,
Rich

[rkd80]

I dont think the comparison is justifiable.

It probably isn't. I really don't place much weight on seasonals, except for the September-October timeframe. Even then, I wouldn't trade on it. Last year, for example, seasonals probably kept many people out of the market. The market rallied through this period.

Regards,
Rich

you are right about seasonality skewing people. It is largely believed that last year's rise was fueled by bears who kept shorting (including myself) awaiting a bad October and the bottoming of a 4 year cycle that never came. Climbing the wall of worry....

of course july's seasonality cannot be compared to that of August/September.