14 replies to this topic

[IYB]

Hi Folks. Couldn't help but note this. Hope all are doing well.

If you listen to the cocktail party conversation, or read the newspaper, or even ask half the realtors about the condition of the real estate market....you'd be convinced that "The housing bubble" is deflating like the Hindenburg. Yet the fact is that at $685,000, the median housing price on Oahu has just set another ALL-TIME RECORD. Interesting.....

"The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated"....Mark Twain



Link to June Stats



June 2007 Residential Resales Statistics for Oahu

Single Family Home Resales

Number of
Sales This Month
Compared To Median*
Sales Price This Month
Compared To June, 2007338 $ 685,000 May, 2007$ 650,000 up 5.4% June, 2006368 dn 8.2% $ 639,000 up 7.2% Condominium Resales Number of
Sales This Month
Compared To Median*
Sales Price This Month
Compared To June, 2007547 $334,000 May, 2007$325,000 up 2.8% June, 2006641 dn 14.7% $310,000 up 7.7%
Click here to view June 2007 Resales Charts.

*Median price means half the prices were above and half below the given price.

"The Oahu housing market achieved new records in June with the median price paid for a single-family home at $685,000, exceeding the previous record of $668,300 in May 2006, and condominium prices at $334,000, surpassing the prior peak of $329,000 set last July," said Berton Hamamoto, President of the Honolulu Board of REALTORS®. "Although the number of sales has diminished from their peak in 2005, the market is still very active and maintaining a healthy equilibrium with adequate supply and strong demand."

"Oahu residential markets have been pushing the price envelope in recent years, including this June," added Harvey Shapiro, Research Economist at the Board of REALTORS®. "Of the seventeen single-family home neighborhoods tracked for research purposes by the Board, sales of over $1 million occurred in ten or more of them every month since last year. Last month, there were even three neighborhoods registering sales of more than $3.8 million. These high-end sales confirm the opinion held by many REALTORS® that there continues to be substantial demand for our properties and that prices most likely will not be adjusting downward anytime soon, if at all."



{Sorry the data charts do not set up correctly in this format}



Very Best, D

[arbman]

Nice to see you posting again, I hope everything is going just as well. Do you think it is time to sell then now that there is enough countrywide breath divergence in real estate? Meaning the high end still sets records, but the planktons are all dying one by one. I mean it is a different market, but the same principles... I am very worried about my commercial RE holdings, although I am not owning them for the appreciation, but rather the cash flow. As long as the business environment does well, they should continue to provide good income, the problem is a lot of the paper profits are tied to the appreciation of the real estate values and I expect eventually a larger debt problem out all of this... Please post more often, you are very much missed here... - kisa

[atlasshrugged]

it only means that sellers havent thrown in the towel yet...cuz in vegas prices havent declined but sales volume has dissapeared

[ogm]

As they say. Real estate is local. NYC real estate holding up, but here in New England things aren't looking that hot at all. A lot of "For Sale" signs with price reduced attachments. Per my recent conversation with a local real estate agent... the market is slooooooow.

And down in Florida..... no kidding .....

http://www.nwfdailyn...om/article/6725

"Realtors attend worship service to pray for better market

KERI HOLT Florida Freedom Newspapers
Wednesday June 20th, 2007
Comment on this Story | Read Comments

DESTIN — More than 300 people with a keen interest in the Emerald Coast’s real estate market gathered Wednesday at Destiny Worship Center to ask for God’s blessing.

The Real Estate Prayer Luncheon was organized in hopes of breathing life and positive thinking into the area’s slumping housing market..................

...........Real estates sales are down all along the Emerald Coast. According to figures from Metro Market Trends, total sales in Okaloosa County in May were down 44 percent compared to May 2006, and year-to-date sales in 2007 are down 36 percent compared to last year..............."

Edited by ogm, 03 July 2007 - 05:33 PM.

[kindspirited]

My take might be obvious, but the rich are truly doing very well, indeed, with record stock market and almost all assets near record highs. Real estate has not yet corrected, sellers sitting on houses as long as possible, I know several that are hoping to get out with minor losses from the 2005 highs, but they do HAVE TO SELL eventually. The medium price is skewed by a few very high sales over $1million in a smaller volume of sales reported. I do not trust the medium prices for that reason. I have been a real estate developer and builder of fine homes for 25 years -

[kindspirited]

I am expecting a sharp correction this month as in July 1996. Along with all the TA talked about here, and fundamentals of high oil prices, real estate deflating, sub-prime pain not yet recognized, extremely high debt levels, and just general addict type withdrawl symptoms after an extended period of mispricing RISK of all levels.... you also have some seasonal factors also. I used to think the market might top and go into a severe bear market, but I think we all recognize the central banks are determined to print more and more money. They really have no choice. But.. we could have a sharp correction partly due to the extended period of time without even a 10% correction. One of the longest on record. 1995-1996 was a similar period without much correction.. and topped in February 1996, then there was a March low, and the stock market came roaring back to peak in early June, just like this year... and then a lower peak in July, followed by a severe sharp correction. No two periods are alike, of course,, but seasonal patterns and ends of very long periods where risk is disregarded can repeat.

[Tor]

Hi Folks. Couldn't help but note this. Hope all are doing well.

If you listen to the cocktail party conversation, or read the newspaper, or even ask half the realtors about the condition of the real estate market....you'd be convinced that "The housing bubble" is deflating like the Hindenburg. Yet the fact is that at $685,000, the median housing price on Oahu has just set another ALL-TIME RECORD. Interesting.....

"The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated"....Mark Twain



Link to June Stats



June 2007 Residential Resales Statistics for Oahu

Single Family Home Resales

Number of
Sales This Month
Compared To Median*
Sales Price This Month
Compared To June, 2007338 $ 685,000 May, 2007$ 650,000 up 5.4% June, 2006368 dn 8.2% $ 639,000 up 7.2% Condominium Resales Number of
Sales This Month
Compared To Median*
Sales Price This Month
Compared To June, 2007547 $334,000 May, 2007$325,000 up 2.8% June, 2006641 dn 14.7% $310,000 up 7.7%
Click here to view June 2007 Resales Charts.

*Median price means half the prices were above and half below the given price.

"The Oahu housing market achieved new records in June with the median price paid for a single-family home at $685,000, exceeding the previous record of $668,300 in May 2006, and condominium prices at $334,000, surpassing the prior peak of $329,000 set last July," said Berton Hamamoto, President of the Honolulu Board of REALTORS®. "Although the number of sales has diminished from their peak in 2005, the market is still very active and maintaining a healthy equilibrium with adequate supply and strong demand."

"Oahu residential markets have been pushing the price envelope in recent years, including this June," added Harvey Shapiro, Research Economist at the Board of REALTORS®. "Of the seventeen single-family home neighborhoods tracked for research purposes by the Board, sales of over $1 million occurred in ten or more of them every month since last year. Last month, there were even three neighborhoods registering sales of more than $3.8 million. These high-end sales confirm the opinion held by many REALTORS® that there continues to be substantial demand for our properties and that prices most likely will not be adjusting downward anytime soon, if at all."



{Sorry the data charts do not set up correctly in this format}



Very Best, D

One reason I think the bears are delluded overall. Asset rich becoming richer.

[arbman]

... and just general addict type withdrawl symptoms after an extended period of mispricing RISK of all levels....

The credit spreads for both the investment and speculative grades rose during June, they are now levels last seen around the end of April or early May. The prices are of course higher, the implied volatilities are also higher. The market implies more risk, but the prices are still climbing despite the internal market structure. It is either an important consolidation so far, or the beginning of the downtrend, I think the range will be broken to the downside at some point, but you usually get a false rally that stops out the short sellers and sucks in everyone, perhaps that rally has already begun and it can go a little longer. The next few sessions will tell...

[IYB]

PS -Another Seven Sentinels Buy Signal today, btw.

-------------------------------

My thought about BOTH real estate and stocks at this point is this:

There is nothing more bullish than a market that "should" go down, but continues going up instead.

--------------------------------

Thanks for the well wihes....I'll try to drop in more often. Safe and Sane Fourth. D

[eminimee]

PS -Another Seven Sentinels Buy Signal today, btw.

-------------------------------

My thought about BOTH real estate and stocks at this point is this:

There is nothing more bullish than a market that "should" go down, but continues going up instead.

--------------------------------

Thanks for the well wihes....I'll try to drop in more often. Safe and Sane Fourth. D

Tough to go "all in" when the other guy will never fold.