9 replies to this topic

[tradercw]

My daily Balance of Power / Momentum analysis is now on a sell. Target cash SPX at 1510 - 1512, then maybe test recent lows at SPX cash 1490.

[mss]

My daily Balance of Power / Momentum analysis is now on a sell.

Based on what time frame? Weekly, daily, hourly?
mss

[tradercw]

It's a daily BOP/Momentum signal, generated using the daily closes. I also have a weekly version (which I trade), which has been on a sell since 5/4/07. The weekly version has not signaled a buy yet, but is slowly lining up for a buy. I have a position in SDS which is a little under water, but then so is everything else here in Texas! Overall, I am bullish this year.

[ogm]

It's a daily BOP/Momentum signal, generated using the daily closes.

I also have a weekly version (which I trade), which has been on a sell since 5/4/07. The weekly version has not signaled a buy yet, but is slowly lining up for a buy. I have a position in SDS which is a little under water, but then so is everything else here in Texas!

Overall, I am bullish this year.

My 60 min summations are starting to rollover too. This is getting ready to dump. Steady equiity put call of 0.5 this morning not going to help.

[tradercw]

What I am needing to understand is why high oil prices are not negatively impacting the general market. It appears to be impacting the economy, but not the market. Any ideas?

[rkd80]

yes, late stage bull. Commodities are king and are always the last thing to rally before a market downturn/economical contraction. With utilities and financial biting the dust and energy leading this aging bull is on borrowed time. Those suggesting we continue to rise for the next several years are mislead.

[da_cheif]

What I am needing to understand is why high oil prices are not negatively impacting the general market. It appears to be impacting the economy, but not the market. Any ideas?

i cant remember ever not seeing an immediate reaction after a pre holiday shortened trading day...

yes, late stage bull. Commodities are king and are always the last thing to rally before a market downturn/economical contraction. With utilities and financial biting the dust and energy leading this aging bull is on borrowed time. Those suggesting we continue to rise for the next several years are mislead.

mislead????..... .......and thinking that way is a good thing.......been that way for the last 4 years

[rkd80]

What I am needing to understand is why high oil prices are not negatively impacting the general market. It appears to be impacting the economy, but not the market. Any ideas?

i cant remember ever not seeing an immediate reaction after a pre holiday shortened trading day...

yes, late stage bull. Commodities are king and are always the last thing to rally before a market downturn/economical contraction. With utilities and financial biting the dust and energy leading this aging bull is on borrowed time. Those suggesting we continue to rise for the next several years are mislead.

mislead????..... .......and thinking that way is a good thing.......been that way for the last 4 years

absolutely chief, i dont know the mentality over the past 4 years, but given that we are 4 years into a bull market its entirely reasonable to assume that this cycle is coming to an end. From a macro perspective, 2000 was the end of an 18 year old bull market, the pause we had is entirely insufficient from 2000-2003. Looking at a 100 year old chart you can see that 15+ year bull markets cause a massive pull-back or at the very least a long choppy ranged period. Are we supposed to assume that 2000 was merely a blip and 1982's market is continuing? Like anything in this financial world, it's possible, but imho very unlikely. I am not one to tempt probability. We have already gone further than we should and if we correct, we might shoot up even higher - but we are now on borrowed time. Whenever I see posts suggesting that this bull is forging ahead for the next 2,3,4,5, etc years it makes me wonder.

[da_cheif]

>its entirely reasonable to assume that this cycle is coming to an end<.......no its not reasonable to assume that......anybody can do that........theres an army of you guyz out there......let them do it for u.......and enjoy the ride......

heres wats reasonable to look for....just like the mexico ipc.......2000 2002 is just a pimple...

http://investmenttoo...worldm/mxxm.gif

Edited by da_cheif, 05 July 2007 - 10:02 PM.

[raleigh]

These "sell signals" seem good for the bull market, let us know.