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#1 SemiBizz

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Posted 08 July 2007 - 07:44 PM

Bill McLaren's CNBC Report 7/6/2007

Click link for charts and commentary.



(From his Nasdaq forecast)

This has been one of the strongest indexes and just popped to a new high. This is a recognizable pattern of trending, the Nikkei is showing the same pattern of trending. Notice how the trend has been struggling upward, every time it breaks to a new high it immediately fails to follow through and runs down but holds the previous low. This style of struggling trend is always followed by a fast move. It is either accumulation against sellers who eventually run out of stock to sell and the market will then make a vertical move up and eventually exhaust into a high in a few weeks. Or this could be distribution and the weak style of trend will end on one of the break out moves and run down and break a previous low with a strong move down as occurred in February. If this is the start of a vertical move up this index will not break back below the last high and will not move down more than three days at any time until the move up is complete. But breaking back below the last high will look like the weak or struggling trend is complete. Bonds will likely hold the key, again.


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#2 da_cheif

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Posted 08 July 2007 - 08:16 PM

>If there is follow through in treasuries today it will likely ruin the party again in stocks.<........they teach this crap in kawledge........geeziz.....

#3 SemiBizz

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Posted 08 July 2007 - 08:21 PM

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif


2634.80 was the high of the previous wave, so fast uptrend is cancelled on a breach... Bears and bulls might want to take note of that number...



>If there is follow through in treasuries today it will likely ruin the party again in stocks.<........they teach this crap in kawledge........geeziz.....



Keep in mind, this is what he reads over the air on CNBC... :) Most of the listeners think a cycle is something they ride... :lol:

Edited by SemiBizz, 08 July 2007 - 08:21 PM.

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#4 arbman

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Posted 08 July 2007 - 09:27 PM

Only a high volume break out tomorrow can save this market, it would mean acceptance of the low volume rally. Otherwise, a pull back is in order and has higher chance given the lower volume rally higher on Friday on many indices. This is what I got out of my studies. I doubt that the price will spend more than half a day up there, if the buyers do not emerge tomorrow morning...

#5 da_cheif

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Posted 08 July 2007 - 09:43 PM

Only a high volume break out tomorrow can save this market, it would mean acceptance of the low volume rally. Otherwise, a pull back is in order and has higher chance given the lower volume rally higher on Friday on many indices. This is what I got out of my studies. I doubt that the price will spend more than half a day up there, if the buyers do not emerge tomorrow morning...



>if the buyers do not emerge tomorrow morning...<......its not the buying that causes rising prices....its the sharply rising prices that causes the buying......
<

#6 arbman

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Posted 08 July 2007 - 09:55 PM

its the sharply rising prices that causes the buying......


I never said what causes the prices to go up :P

OK, let me put it this way, whatever causes the prices to go up higher from here has to have more demand following it because all that volume at the lows from previous week will be looking to sell for whatever reason the prices move up sharply higher from here... :D

#7 redfoliage2

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Posted 08 July 2007 - 09:58 PM

Only a high volume break out tomorrow can save this market, it would mean acceptance of the low volume rally. Otherwise, a pull back is in order and has higher chance given the lower volume rally higher on Friday on many indices. This is what I got out of my studies. I doubt that the price will spend more than half a day up there, if the buyers do not emerge tomorrow morning...

Currently I'm bullish on SSEC and bearish on NDX.

Edited by redfoliage2, 08 July 2007 - 09:59 PM.


#8 NAV

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Posted 08 July 2007 - 11:27 PM

It is either accumulation against sellers who eventually run out of stock to sell and the market will then make a vertical move up and eventually exhaust into a high in a few weeks. Or this could be distribution and the weak style of trend will end on one of the break out moves and run down and break a previous low with a strong move down as occurred in February.


In other words, the guy doesn't know whether it's accu/dist i.e up or down. You don't need to pay the guy to know this :lol:

Edited by NAV, 08 July 2007 - 11:28 PM.

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