Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Wilderhill Clean Energy Index delivered a nice break out above 220 on 7-3, and has been adding to it. OUr alternative energy sector has been updated with new picks.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Crude oil prices are starting to move higher with $70 now becoming support.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) is also trying to move higher. The index made a new high on 6-22, and is trying to get back toward the key area.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Amex Oil Index (XOI) has been showing some improvement of late.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Earnings Season Ahead
It could be an excellent time to be careful and selective, as earnings season kicks off this afternoon with Alcoa's report.
The one saving grace of the period, though, could well be the fact that traders are expecting lower earnings. That means that the chances for up side surprises might increase.
Still, that's no excuse to be careless. Thus every positions should be monitored on its own merits, and trading rules should be followed carefully.
One way to cut risk is to use a seasonally based trading approach, either as part of your overall trading plan, or as the primary approach.
Our seasonality portfolio is now positive for the year, and will be out of the market until the end of this month, earning interest in 90-day Treasury bills.
For more information visit our growth stock trading section and read the section on seasonality trading.
Otherwise, although last week was a decent week, we're still in a position by position strategy, having added a few new potential longs throughout all or sections, and leaning heavily toward the strong sector of the moment, technology.
We'll also be focusing on our seasonality model, as seasonality driven trading strategies are useful during volatile times, which is why our seasonally based S & P timing model has been long since the open on 6-29.
We still like what we see in the semiconductor area, which continues to hold up, and could get a boost as chip sales showed a modest increase in the last quarter.
The S & P 500, remained above its 50 day moving average, another positive.
Nasdaq continued to show improvement last week.
Remember this:
A successful trading program requires two things, risk management, and a sustainable trend.
A sustainable trend, up or down, allows for the steady adjustment of risk, meaning that sell stops, or buy stops if you're selling short, can be adjusted over time, giving the opportunity to reach a profit.
Volatile markets increase the chances of being stopped out prematurely, thus, making it difficult to make money.
In these types of markets, there is a need to be patient. And patience usually gives traders the feeling that they are missing opportunities to make money. When that happens, inexperience leads to over trading, which tends to increase the opportunity of losing money.
In other words, for now, the best strategy is to stick with what's working, and give this market time to work out its own kinks, without taking too much of our money away.
Think of alternatives to stocks, such as bonds and the dollar, which are still offering a unique trading opportunity, shorting bonds, and being long the dollar.
Otherwise, be patient. From a longer term stand point, based on historical trends, this should be a positive year for stocks, given the fact that it's the third year of the Presidential Cycle, which calls for rallies in the third and fourth years of a presidency.
Our long term forecast remains upbeat, unless the major indexes fall convincingly below their 200 day moving averages.
What To Do Now
Keep a lid on emotion, and stick to your trading rules. Aggressive traders should be controlling the risk of any short sales that are still open.
Consider taking some profits where it makes sense, and consider tightening stops where appropriate. Use our individual sections for guidance.
Selectivity remains the key to success. Look for strength, either on a continued basis, or in turn around areas, such as the semiconductors.
Visit all our individual sections, both our ETF and individual stock picks daily for new ideas, and changes to open positions.
Be very methodical about monitoring portfolios, adhering to trading rules, and ratcheting up sell stops is clearly still here.
Second guessing decisions, and hoping that things will turn out o.k. in the long haul, is the recipe for disaster at a time like this in the market.
Check all our sections daily. See tech, biotech, Fallen Angels, and timing systems for the latest adjustments. Our ETF trading systems for energy, Spyders, Small Caps, and technology have also been updated.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
It looks as if Wall Street is betting on another windfall for Apple. The Iphone, like the Ipod, is the key, as Apple seems to have delivered another nearly-killer application.
The bugs on the AT & T network notwithstanding, to go along with clever marketing, seem to have convinced investors that Apple has another hit on its hands.
The stock has now moved above 132, taking the stock to a 45-plus percent gain for the year.
In other words, momentum is back with Apple. The flip side, of course, is that momentum, once it runs out, will likely lead to a bad fall. But, for now, there is no sign of that to worry about.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Small stocks are showing some resilience.
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