6 replies to this topic

[hiker]

if 48.69 is all this decline can dish out, then I bet this is going to be another bear trap...we will know by the close. long QQQQ with a stop keeping to myself long AAPL 132.40's...needs to move below .30 to shake out weak hands

Edited by hiker, 10 July 2007 - 12:28 PM.

[ogm]

There is really only a couple stocks holding this thing up. Broader Compx is much weaker. Besides, daily summations looking to roll over today again, if a/d doesn't improve by the close. And frankly, A/D looks like crap.

[hiker]

how could only a couple stocks hold the averages this close to historic highs? how can top picking this close to historic highs not be considered with that perspective?...sure a correction has been due for 3 years now. booked AAPL profits based on 15min chart setup, and failiure at an MA on the 15min

[ogm]

how could only a couple stocks hold the averages this close to historic highs?

how can top picking this close to historic highs not be considered with that perspective?...sure a correction has been due for 3 years now.

booked AAPL profits based on 15min chart setup, and failiure at an MA on the 15min

There is more and more erroding charts. Doesn't matter that we are close to the highs. As you know the number of issues that actualy are going up narrows as the top nears. More and more issues start falling off the wagon.

And I think thats where we are now. Narrowing leadership.
Look at financials today for example, they are getting decimated. How can this market go up ? Look at their weekly charts too, many broken trendlines and rolling over technicals.

As for NDX specificaly, AAPL, CSCO and INTC holding it toghether pretty much. A/D line on the rest of the Nasdaq is more then 2 to 1 negative. And was steadily erroding all day.

[hiker]

btw, for AAPL the 200sma on the 15min has a horizontal nearby..let's see if the decline stops or keeping going through

[hiker]

qqqq 48.50 has to fail first before .38/.40 can be seen

[arbman]

I ran a very thourough analysis on the Qs and its 18 top stocks that make about 65% of the index, my guess is 1945-1965 region for the low at this time. This would be roughly 48... I agree it is mostly bullish, in fact once the financials also bottom, there is a good chance that an August rally will be powerful. The bottoming should take 2 wks from here for the overall market. But NDX should be able to rally higher. I expect another IT top in later August, the Q407 and Q108 will be where the economy bottoms (most likely) and this means the market will be probably still stuggling until Oct or so for a bottom. I even expect the rates to come lower for early next year... Yes, USD is in trouble with or without any economic stress at this point and this is why I think there might be some more pain in the markets, the foreigners will not want to hold onto the US equities that exhibit declining asset prices (due to the USD) and slowing growth in the months ahead... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 10 July 2007 - 01:25 PM.