6 replies to this topic

[ogm]

This is as good as it gets. This bull market is coming to an end. Can you say "Liquidty crunch" ?

Will it turn into a huge bear market or not, no one knows. But these charts aren't turning around any time soon.

I'd say many many month untill they stabilize and will be in a position to turn around.

Edited by ogm, 10 July 2007 - 06:08 PM.

[ogm]

And here is more and more.... I can post dozens of these. Financials are cracking big time. The rest of the market to follow.

Therse are the chart of the top of the credit cycle. Buh-bye easy credit.

Liquidity crunch is spreading. Buh-bye leveraged buyouts, and debt financed stock repurchase programs.

[Jnavin]

But Bear Stearns surprises by failing to take out its previous intraday low.

Edited by Jnavin, 10 July 2007 - 07:42 PM.

[da_cheif]

>The market is rotting < ogm Nov 14 2005, 04:13 PM Post #1 Member Group: Traders-Talk User Posts: 3588 Joined: 9-June 05 Member No.: 3742 While everyone is mezmerized staring at the Nasdaq and GOOG tickers, the broad market is erroding. NYSE A/D line very weak, 2 to 1 decliners again, down volume already higher the Friday and worsening by the minute. Summation on daily slowed down to the tiping point. One more day like this and it rolls over again. There is a lot of distribution under the surface, while shiny things getting dingled in front of everyon'es noses. < no disrespect....but as i recall...june 9 2005 was WWW.......... strange ...today google was up and is now 250 pts higher since 6.9.05

[ogm]

But Bear Stearns surprises by failing to take out its previous intraday low.

It did make a lower close though. Also look at the volume on that rally. And MACD crossed back down again.
BSC is toast too. And its not the hedgefunds issue. The bigger issue is that after LEH they were the second largest player in mortgage backed securities and CDO's, and now that makert has dried up significantly. Their earnings will be hurt. And on top of that they lost 4 bil dollars.


From chart perspective the weekly chart looks just as sad as LEH, MCO and all other players in that arena.

[ogm]

>The market is rotting <
ogm Nov 14 2005, 04:13 PM Post #1

Member
Group: Traders-Talk User
Posts: 3588
Joined: 9-June 05
Member No.: 3742



While everyone is mezmerized staring at the Nasdaq and GOOG tickers, the broad market is erroding.

NYSE A/D line very weak, 2 to 1 decliners again, down volume already higher the Friday and worsening by the minute. Summation on daily slowed down to the tiping point. One more day like this and it rolls over again.

There is a lot of distribution under the surface, while shiny things getting dingled in front of everyon'es noses. <



no disrespect....but as i recall...june 9 2005 was WWW..........

strange ...today google was up and is now 250 pts higher since 6.9.05

That time I was early, the market recovered. Liquidity was still plentiful. But...... as for the brokers specificaly... People were still buying 100s of billions of CDOs

The 2 main revenue sources for brokers are LBO's and CDO's of all kinds. There is plenty of CDO's for sale under 90 cents on the dollar these days. No one w3ants new ones. That revenue stream is gone. And LBO's have slowed down to a crawl. How many buyouts where announced this monday ? 2-3 ? On the first Monday in June it was 84. You know why ? Because no one wants to provide leverage anymore for the "leveraged" buyouts. there is 200+ bil in unfinanced deals already announced. This is called credit crunch. Will it last ? No one knows.

While you're thinking of perpetual inflation, I'm starting to think about deflation. Commodities should be getting hit in the next wave.

We'll see.

WWW, not WWW, who cares. These aren't 3 minute charts. The multi year trends are breaking down.

Charts say sell.

Edited by ogm, 10 July 2007 - 08:01 PM.

[JAP]

Just watch GS... saves lots of time