8 replies to this topic

[Bob-C]

Hi everyone, here is the CPCE weekly chart.

Here is the CPC weekly chart.

Here is the CPCI weekly chart.

Here is the CPCE daily chart.

Here is the CPC daily chart.

Here is the CPCI daily chart.

Here is the VIX daily chart.

Here is the VIX weekly chart.

Here is the VXN daily chart.

Here is the VXN weekly chart.

Here is the VXO daily chart.

Here is the VXO weekly chart.

Here is the QQV daily chart.

Here is the QQV weekly chart.

Here is the VIX daily TL chart:
http://chart.nu/chart?ticker=$VIX&ma&m_start=8&y_start=2006&filter=13.png

Here is the VIX weekly TL chart:
http://chart.nu/chart?ticker=$VIX&ma&w&m_start=6&y_start=2003&filter=8.png

Here is the VXN daily TL chart:
http://chart.nu/chart?ticker=$VXN&ma&m_start=8&y_start=2006&filter=13.png

Here is the VXN weekly TL chart:
http://chart.nu/chart?ticker=$VXN&ma&w&m_start=6&y_start=2003&filter=8.png

Here is the VXO daily TL chart:
http://chart.nu/chart?ticker=$VXO&ma&m_start=8&y_start=2006&filter=13.png

Here is the VXO weekly TL chart:
http://chart.nu/chart?ticker=$VXO&ma&w&m_start=6&y_start=2003&filter=8.png

Here is the QQV daily TL chart:
http://chart.nu/chart?ticker=$QQV&ma&m_start=8&y_start=2006&filter=13.png

Here is the QQV weekly TL chart:
http://chart.nu/chart?ticker=$QQV&ma&w&m_start=6&y_start=2003&filter=8.png

Cheers,

Bob-C

[spielchekr]

I think this chart told it all

[rkd80]

Bob are you still doubting the strength of this move and expecting a strong retracement?

[Bob-C]

I think this chart told it all

Hi spielchekr, thanks for the relevant and important chart. The chart clearly shows that the strong hands' short sales peaked exactly at the NYSE top prior to the 2/27/07 market plunge associated with the SSEC plunge and right now short sales have reached a far higher peak than the 2/27/07 short-sales peak. The bottom line in the VST is caveat emptor!

Cheers,

Bob-C

Edited by Bob-C, 12 July 2007 - 10:50 PM.

[Bob-C]

Bob are you still doubting the strength of this move and expecting a strong retracement?

Hi rkd80, nice to hear from you, thanks for the excellent question. Yes, I'm expecting a strong retracement. Please see my reply to spielchekr above. See the chart below that compares the SPX to the CPC; the CPC is getting close to a low point that has marked SPX reversals to the downside in the past. The CPCE at .48 is close to an important .45 low and other low points that have marked market reversals to the downside in the past. The volatility indices are approaching oversold conditions. The market may reverse sharply to the downside in the VST to ST. i.e., on Friday's retail sales numbers (as an excuse of course), next Tuesday's and Wednesday's PPI and CPI numbers, and/or reverse to the downside during the post OPEX week as the start of an August market hit.



Cheers,

Bob-C

[spielchekr]

I think this chart told it all

Hi spielchekr, thanks for the relevant and important chart. The chart clearly shows that the strong hands' short sales peaked exactly at the NYSE top prior to the 2/27/07 market plunge associated with the SSEC plunge and right now short sales have reached a far higher peak than the 2/27/07 short-sales peak. The bottom line in the VST is caveat emptor!

Cheers,

Bob-C

I dunno there Bob-C. When I put a straight edge up to 20070228, I see the shorting peak volume and buying & selling trough volume evolving into the subsequent low, not at the 2-27 price peak. Looks much the same here, only more amplified. This was truly short covering rally 110% in response to the massive relative shorting volume.

This is a live chart, but Small Investors updates it a day after the fact. Come back and see what happened yesterday.

[Bob-C]

I think this chart told it all

Hi spielchekr, thanks for the relevant and important chart. The chart clearly shows that the strong hands' short sales peaked exactly at the NYSE top prior to the 2/27/07 market plunge associated with the SSEC plunge and right now short sales have reached a far higher peak than the 2/27/07 short-sales peak. The bottom line in the VST is caveat emptor!

Cheers,

Bob-C

I dunno there Bob-C. When I put a straight edge up to 20070228, I see the shorting peak volume and buying & selling trough volume evolving into the subsequent low, not at the 2-27 price peak. Looks much the same here, only more amplified. This was truly short covering rally 110% in response to the massive relative shorting volume.

This is a live chart, but Small Investors updates it a day after the fact. Come back and see what happened yesterday.

Thanks spielchekr, I will check the chart later today. I agree that the rally of 7-12-07 was a massive short-covering rally by traders and hedge funds etc. The strong hands including the MMs and investment houses acting as MMs and/or specialists usually distribute their shares from their inventory first and then sell short to those who were forced to cover their short sales during the rally. Note, what I wrote to rkd80 above about the CPC and CPCE heading towards extreme lows. When the MMs and major trading houses have completed their distribution and short selling then the decline will ensue in earnest so that they can cover and profit from their short sales and then begin to re-accumulate for the next rally. IMHO, the US market and worldwide markets have been and always will be a merchandising operation, everything else from the worldwide media, government propaganda, and trading houses, etc. is simply subterfuge and obfuscation to facilitate the merchandising operations on a daily basis.

Have a nice day.

Bob-C

[rkd80]

Bob,

Thanks for the response, I always use CPC in my analysis and I would like to point out one thing. Given your chart the CPC has reached the low levels we are seeing now several times during the '06 rally and the market did not even budge to the downside. There is always more I am sure, but for now it would seem that the CPC's levels are subjective. I can only add that the 06 rally came out of the lows of the summer, while we have been consolidating for the past 1.5 months. But maybe a consolidation is enough to reset some of the inidcators.

Bob are you still doubting the strength of this move and expecting a strong retracement?

Hi rkd80, nice to hear from you, thanks for the excellent question. Yes, I'm expecting a strong retracement. Please see my reply to spielchekr above. See the chart below that compares the SPX to the CPC; the CPC is getting close to a low point that has marked SPX reversals to the downside in the past. The CPCE at .48 is close to an important .45 low and other low points that have marked market reversals to the downside in the past. The volatility indices are approaching oversold conditions. The market may reverse sharply to the downside in the VST to ST. i.e., on Friday's retail sales numbers (as an excuse of course), next Tuesday's and Wednesday's PPI and CPI numbers, and/or reverse to the downside during the post OPEX week as the start of an August market hit.



Cheers,

Bob-C

[Bob-C]

Bob,

Thanks for the response, I always use CPC in my analysis and I would like to point out one thing. Given your chart the CPC has reached the low levels we are seeing now several times during the '06 rally and the market did not even budge to the downside. There is always more I am sure, but for now it would seem that the CPC's levels are subjective. I can only add that the 06 rally came out of the lows of the summer, while we have been consolidating for the past 1.5 months. But maybe a consolidation is enough to reset some of the inidcators.

Bob are you still doubting the strength of this move and expecting a strong retracement?

Hi rkd80, nice to hear from you, thanks for the excellent question. Yes, I'm expecting a strong retracement. Please see my reply to spielchekr above. See the chart below that compares the SPX to the CPC; the CPC is getting close to a low point that has marked SPX reversals to the downside in the past. The CPCE at .48 is close to an important .45 low and other low points that have marked market reversals to the downside in the past. The volatility indices are approaching oversold conditions. The market may reverse sharply to the downside in the VST to ST. i.e., on Friday's retail sales numbers (as an excuse of course), next Tuesday's and Wednesday's PPI and CPI numbers, and/or reverse to the downside during the post OPEX week as the start of an August market hit.



Cheers,

Bob-C

You're welcome rkd80, thanks for the information and insights.

Cheers,

Bob