9 replies to this topic

[zedor]

Yesterday the good news was

Retail Sales Are Better Than Analysts Expected

http://www.nytimes.c...ss/13shops.html ostensibly the reason for the rally yesterday.

This made little sense as I dont see people spending but curtailing spending as reported in fact by todays news.

Today the headline is

Retail Sales Show Biggest Drop in Nearly 2 Years

http://www.nytimes.c...AP-Economy.html

As they said in X files "Trust no one Mr Mulder -- trust no one"

Edited by zedor, 13 July 2007 - 09:32 AM.

[rkd80]

So while the market rallied on the former it shrugged off the latter. Clearly these moves have nothing to do with what is coming down the news pipe.

Yesterday the good news was

Retail Sales Are Better Than Analysts Expected

http://www.nytimes.c...ss/13shops.html ostensibly the reason for the rally yesterday.



This made little sense as I dont see people spending but curtailing spending as reported in fact by todays news.



Today the headline is

Retail Sales Show Biggest Drop in Nearly 2 Years

http://www.nytimes.c...AP-Economy.html



As they said in X files "Trust no one Mr Mulder -- trust no one"







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[ogm]

Yes, they expected the biggest drop in 3 years Only got the biggest drop in 2.... makes sense Seriously, though, it rallied more on RPT offer for Alcan, and short squeese. Buyout merger mania thingy. Retail stocks are in downtrend, take a look the charts. Its all about Oil and materials. While they are holding up, the indexes will be holding up.

Edited by ogm, 13 July 2007 - 09:58 AM.

[fib_1618]

This made little sense as I dont see people spending but curtailing spending as reported in fact by todays news.

The very best way to determine peoples spending habits is to go to your local mall once in a while, sit down, and count the number of shopping bags being carried around. Having just been to L.A., and as of the last week of June here in Sacramento, spending has been quite fluid since Memorial Day.

On the road, as mentioned a couple of weeks ago, I'm seeing one new vehicle for every 10-15 since April.

As far as the N.Y Times is concerned, their credibility to report on the facts has been lost for many years now and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Fib

[nimblebear]

Yesterday the good news was

Retail Sales Are Better Than Analysts Expected

http://www.nytimes.c...ss/13shops.html ostensibly the reason for the rally yesterday.

This made little sense as I dont see people spending but curtailing spending as reported in fact by todays news.

Today the headline is

Retail Sales Show Biggest Drop in Nearly 2 Years

http://www.nytimes.c...AP-Economy.html

As they said in X files "Trust no one Mr Mulder -- trust no one"

I noticed that too. These reports are so bogus. I have seen this happen so many times, its getting to be ridiculous. One day good report. Next day, bad report on same subject. Its amazing how they spin things. Its a rearview look though and I thought the market looked forward.

[fib_1618]

Its a rearview look though and I thought the market looked forward.

It does, by about 2-3 months.

What you read now is what the market already discounted by this same amount of time.

Fib

[zedor]

This made little sense as I dont see people spending but curtailing spending as reported in fact by todays news.

The very best way to determine peoples spending habits is to go to your local mall once in a while, sit down, and count the number of shopping bags being carried around. Having just been to L.A., and as of the last week of June here in Sacramento, spending has been quite fluid since Memorial Day.

On the road, as mentioned a couple of weeks ago, I'm seeing one new vehicle for every 10-15 since April.

As far as the N.Y Times is concerned, their credibility to report on the facts has been lost for many years now and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Fib

1. Neither article was written by the NY Times. If you took the time to open the links and look, the first was by Reuters the other by the Associated Press and these stories are equally all over every business news outlet there is. Thus your comment about the Times is as accurate as your proposed method to determine the level or retail sails by counting shopping bags, which by the way could have returns in them or Chinese flip flops. Since you did not offer any evidence to dispute either articles I mentioned , I presume you just decided to get a political comment in about the NYT for yuks.


Now if you want to talk about media accuracy then lets and put on the table the WSJ, and biased and unbalanced Fox News and the other Murdoch mouthpieces as well and have a comprehensive discussion.


2.I talk to quite a lot of retail people and in LA and they say dollar volume of business is down and people are less willing to spend especially on discretionary items.

Edited by zedor, 13 July 2007 - 11:34 AM.

[fib_1618]

1. Neither article was written by the NY Times. If you took the time to open the links and look, the first was by Reuters the other by the Associated Press and these stories are equally all over every business news outlet there is. Thus your comment about the Times is as accurate as your proposed method to determine the level or retail sails by counting shopping bags, which by the way could have returns in them or Chinese flip flops. Since you did not offer any evidence to dispute either articles I mentioned , I presume you just decided to get a political comment in about the NYT for yuks.

Yes, I noticed the news agencies who wrote the articles....read them as well. Like I said, the credibility of the N.Y. Times to report on the facts is proven here once again by not having their own reporters going out and finding out the facts for themselves, as well as their readers (which is national), and leaving the by-lines from others of their same ilk to present this same information (in this case, the AP and Reuters).

The N.Y. Times has always been a democratic leaning newspaper since the early 1920's. Their problems in recent years have been well documented with certain reporters being caught in making up stories to support a particular agenda with the full approval of the editor-in-chief. Their declining subscription base, as well as advertising revenue, shows that the people are also aware of this as well.

The articles themselves are quite clear...yesterday retail sales for June were better than Wall Street's "lowered expectations" based primarily on the International Council of Shopping Centers, while today's data is based on the Commerce Department. Just different points of view given, based on a different set of criteria.

And as far as shopping bags are concerned, yes, there could be returns involved. But like I also said, you need to sit down and watch for a while...as the consumers go in and out of the stores, and more to the point, which stores are involved, to gain a better perspective of what's going on in your area of the country. Talking to "retail people" without providing who or where these people either work or own (you didn't say which) may provide some insight, but I have never, ever, met a retail owner who was ever satisfied with their level of business. By watching the consumer, however, though it may be cursory in content, the expressions on their faces does give one a better handle on how they actually "feel" sentiment wise, and isn't that what we're actually talking about?

Now if you want to talk about media accuracy then lets and put on the table the WSJ, and biased and unbalanced Fox News and the other Murdoch mouthpieces as well and have a comprehensive discussion.

Yes, it's pretty sad out there, isn't it? But fortunately for all of us, the internet does provide many points of view so that you can get a more balanced view of the facts at hand, by all sides, and then come to your own conclusions without the "benefit" of having being told "what to think".

All this side, the technicals of the market is what really counts in all this anyway and where, once again, getting ones information based on fundamental data is nice to know, but when you read about, the market is on to other things more important looking forward. And that's what we should all be concentrating on, while leaving others to ponder if the media information you receive really matters or not.

Have a nice day

Fib

[beta]

[deleted]

Edited by beta, 13 July 2007 - 01:10 PM.

[LarryT]

Yesterday the good news was

Retail Sales Are Better Than Analysts Expected

http://www.nytimes.c...ss/13shops.html ostensibly the reason for the rally yesterday.

This made little sense as I dont see people spending but curtailing spending as reported in fact by todays news.

Today the headline is

Retail Sales Show Biggest Drop in Nearly 2 Years

http://www.nytimes.c...AP-Economy.html

As they said in X files "Trust no one Mr Mulder -- trust no one"

Zedor,
Only 12 more trading days to August and the dollar futures are only 0.29 from trading in the 70s

Larry T.