4 replies to this topic

[NAV]

is coming closer to an end. After we broke out in June 2006, i wrote my long term thoughts on my blog and had projected SPX 1620 by 2009.

http://nav-ta.blogsp...t-thoughts.html

Based on how the pattern is progressing, i think that projection should be fullfilled over the next 3-4 months making a huge top around Oct-Nov 2007. Given the time requirements for the primary degree wave B, it's not reasonable to call this the end of primary degree wave B. This would conclude the first leg of the bull market (a-b-c of primary degree wave B ). What follows a A-B-C in a complex correction is a wave X. Wave X are rogue waves. They come out of the blue with no warning. Once this wave X concludes somewhere in 2008, another large advance should carry us into the primary degree wave B top somewhere during 2009-2010. I will update my blog with charts showing what i am seeing.

Good luck everyone.

Edited by NAV, 13 July 2007 - 03:20 PM.

[greenie]

We are still in a bear market from 2000. Adjust S&P by dollar devaluation and the bear market rally will be clear to you.

[kc135a]

is coming closer to an end. After we broke out in June 2006, i wrote my long term thoughts on my blog and had projected SPX 1620 by 2009.

http://nav-ta.blogsp...t-thoughts.html

Based on how the pattern is progressing, i think that projection should be fullfilled over the next 3-4 months making a huge top around Oct-Nov 2007. Given the time requirements for the primary degree wave B, it's not reasonable to call this the end of primary degree wave B. This would conclude the first leg of the bull market (a-b-c of primary degree wave B ). What follows a A-B-C in a complex correction is a wave X. Wave X are rogue waves. They come out of the blue with no warning. Once this wave X concludes somewhere in 2008, another large advance should carry us into the primary degree wave B top somewhere during 2009-2010. I will update my blog with charts showing what i am seeing.

Good luck everyone.

FWIW I have SPX 2100-2250 and the DOW at 18900-20200 by April-September 2009.

The real question to me is this year. Do we get the 15-20% correction beginning fall into Thanksgiving or do we just keep trucking up like the 60's. It is a big difference between the two paths for this year but neither route changes the 2009 targets.

KC

[slatedrake]

Thanks for the update NAV. That LONG TERM MARKET THOUGHTS post back in September was a great read and I'll look forward to your current thoughts.

[NAV]

We are still in a bear market from 2000. Adjust S&P by dollar devaluation and the bear market rally will be clear to you.

Yeah right !. Buy me that bottle of French red, adjusting for dollar devaluation and i will be a raging bear