2 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

good spot for some type of top here..maybe just short term top



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[relax]

hi tea thanks for the posts

is my memory correct when remembering your forecast that if we hit 1.560 before 1.532 area then that might signal failure and a bigger move down...

cheers

good spot for some type of top here..maybe just short term top



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[eminimee]

the number is 1561.80..here's the whole thing

The count is very bullish on spx if we are topping or have topped a wave 1 of an ending diagonal that would target the 1590/1600 area hopefully done on internal technical fumes if we get up there....we can't rule that out at the moment ......HOWEVER.....if we hit 1561.80 SPX BEFORE a decent pull back to the 1533/39 area...............that would be a HUGE warning to me that 1530 is going to fail to act as support and we have put in a substantial top with a bull trap having been sprung on an inverted H&S pattern failure. (Failures will usually come at about 33% of the way to target) Coming down to that 1533/39 area and holding before we hit 1561.80 keeps those higher targets alive.

I do have other technical reasons for the rally possibly failing at that 1561.80 number but it's my own odd ball stuff that would confuse most anyways....... I will say though....TRAN is a chart that really bugs me if we want to stay bullish. We might just want to entertain this count on OEX too..which would give us close to that spx 1561.80 mark if it hits the top of wedge....and would give us an ewave count that would explain any failure on spx from these levels...I also had a turn date on July 13th that's sticking in my claw.....but what really sticks in my claw is that slight new high on oex back in mid June when spx didn't confirm it....that tiny bit of difference could make such a difference in turning what seems to be only wave 1 of 5 up of an ED on spx....into the top of a three wave B of an expanded flat.
TRAN and OEX: Sorry for the ramble...and remember...a 10% correction would only take us to the 1400 level on spx.





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Edited by Teaparty, 16 July 2007 - 12:21 PM.