5 replies to this topic

[zedor]

The powers that be are trying to keep the ball going past its prime. All the huffing and puffing and they get a Dow record coincident with both the NASD and NYA MO going negative. Average Joe is being fed the BS of the century. Even the Chief is so ashamed he has gone into excile. Might not get THE day right and might be off a week or a month but this TOP will be like no other.

[fib_1618]

Might not get THE day right and might be off a week or a month but this TOP will be like no other.

Agreed....but how long are you willing to wait for it to happen?

So far, it's 4 years and counting.

Fib

[zedor]

Might not get THE day right and might be off a week or a month but this TOP will be like no other.

Agreed....but how long are you willing to wait for it to happen?

So far, it's 4 years and counting.

Fib

Maybe in your bull view you find comfort in stating such even though its not so. I have been long and short along the way and I have said so when I resumed posting here in March and you even commented on that.

I was early and wrong 3 or 4 years ago but that does not negate today, or the larger picture of where this market is eventually heading. Your comment is a peculiar way to try to detract from the present.

The fact of the last 4 years just has inflated the size and time that will be spent in bear land. The bigger the bull the bigger the bear to follow. And now we have the makings of a decades long bear ( look at Japan as an example, its bear slowly coming up on 20 years).

Edited by zedor, 16 July 2007 - 05:18 PM.

[nimblebear]

[quote name='zedor' date='Jul 16 2007, 05:17 PM' post='299707']
[quote name='fib_1618' post='299706' date='Jul 16 2007, 02:56 PM'] [quote]Might not get THE day right The fact of the last 4 years just has inflated the size and time that will be spent in bear land. The bigger the bull the bigger the bear to follow. And now we have the makings of a decades long bear ( look at Japan as an example, its bear slowly coming up on 20 years).
[/quote]

... but we're not Japan. It can't possibly happen here...

[Islander]

"The fact of the last 4 years just has inflated the size and time that will be spent in bear land. The bigger the bull the bigger the bear to follow. And now we have the makings of a decades long bear ( look at Japan as an example, its bear slowly coming up on 20 years)." Bad, but likely much worse. You are reckoning without current fed policy (denial), the sea of global liquidity, and the total lack of manageability of a collaspe overlapping national boundries (the BIS has said it will not be manageable). The "systemic" failures Greenspan used to worry about are fairy tales compared to what could, and might well, unfold if the US merely slows its consumption of goods from external suppliers in Asia. Not even US treasuries look good since they will likely be a dime to a dollar in the confusion. This is a "golden" event coming up because nothing will be the same afterwards if we slip into a deep recession in the US. Our international clients know this and they have plans to cut the lines to our economy. Sobering? Islander.

[fib_1618]

... but we're not Japan. It can't possibly happen here...

Japan was a different time, with different circumstances, and not likely to repeat here in the US.

Just like the current bull market, it will be "something different" that will affect the next bear market here in the US...that you can bet on.

Fib