9 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

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QQQQ -With stronger volume on the 3 PM candle today we were unable to test lower which is also the picture on the daily... stealth sign of strength. This is a consolidation and probably going higher... The support could be broken on heavy first hour volume tomorrow or not... 49.80.



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Nasdaq -Picture is a little different here, we had an outside day on about the same volume. There's probably a good chance we'll test Thursday's low or the bottom trend line at 2665. A bit of a mixed picture vs QQQQ outlook. Usually the Index wins ties... we'll see. Today we bounced off the 30 min support(2693.94) from Thursday. That also could break down on the open.

[ogm]

I think this is pretty straightforward. The decline has started and will likely accelerate tomorrow. This rally was very weak. Look at daily MCO's, the NYMO has an outright negative divergence on it. And the Nasdaq barely made higher high.

Both daily summations turned down today too. This is 60 min summations.

Edited by ogm, 16 July 2007 - 07:24 PM.

[SemiBizz]

The other possibility is that the QQQQ is showing a stealth strength in semiconductors... We'll see tomorrow.

[arbman]

Semi, what do you think about the expanding volume on Google, yet not significant upside action, do you think it could break out of the rising triangle? Today's action looked like pure distribution to me... Not much different in Apple... The volume disappeared since the break out on the semis, speaking of Intel, Cisco, Qcom... BTW, Comcast is looking quite weak to me... Oracle and Microsoft have given more than half of their b/o range too (on the pull back), not very strong. Ericsson broke higher very strongly and now it is trading below the break out levels! Dell tried, but could not break out... EBay, Rimm and Teva are showing strength and seem to continue their prior trend. There was a big selling volume on Rimm... Yahoo and Infinity are in a downtrend, so is Gilette about to begin a downtrend... This sums up about 60% of the Qs...

Edited by kisacik, 16 July 2007 - 10:15 PM.

[arbman]

http://ichart.financ...,m200&a=vm&.png

http://ichart.financ...,m200&a=vm&.png

It is all about the large caps now...

- kisa

[eminimee]

I'd be remiss if I didn't show this...but I post it not only to show what the inverted H&S target is (2235/37 but where the pattern could fail... total failure would becoming back below neckline.
I'm looking for a substantial top here...and I don't mean to throw people off...but we have to respect these patterns until they fail and prove themselves as bull traps...or they go to target...I point to FXI for example..hasn't failed yet....the majority thought it was cooked (including me) before it took off over 118.




Click Here to see Full Sized Image

I still like the 1533/39 area on spx to get hit on a pull back and see if she holds...measured move on the inverted pattern is 1590 area.


Click Here to see Full Sized Image




Click Here to see Full Sized Image



Compq....another chart that colours me neutral on the short to intermediate term....



I've just snugged the .618 retrace under the Aug 04 low to see where the top came out...makes a decent target on another push ...also at the top of a possible channel and an old support line.
Note similar divergent pattern on NASI weekly as going into the 04 top.




Click Here to see Full Sized Image

[SemiBizz]

Semi, what do you think about the expanding volume on Google, yet not significant upside action, do you think it could break out of the rising triangle? Today's action looked like pure distribution to me...

High level distribution... volume has declined steadily since 2/1/07 and price to da moon...

The other possibility is that the QQQQ is showing a stealth strength in semiconductors... We'll see tomorrow.

And the SOXX opens on a new high...


One more thing, the default under FAST UPTREND is making NEW HIGHS....

Edited by SemiBizz, 17 July 2007 - 08:38 AM.

[SemiBizz]

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The price wants to hold at candle #3 level where you see the volume spike about 50.05. This spike is taller than any of the ones from yesterday, so it should act as support... more information will become available on the next volume spike....

Edited by SemiBizz, 17 July 2007 - 10:51 AM.

[SemiBizz]

3 min QQQQ trend just flipped down.. Nasdaq 3 min. still pointing up.

[SemiBizz]

3 min trends flipped up hard with huge volume coming in... Volume projection exceeds 2B Nasdaq.