6 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Can you believe it ? It has been almost 18 month since the last time they were so excited. You can't see it very well on the top chart, so I included the bottom chart for illustration purposes of what happened last time we had the breakout excitement.

[Trend-Signals]

Hi OMG!


Nice chart.

Let's all praey hard for market pull back?!

[atlasshrugged]

Can you believe it ? It has been almost 18 month since the last time they were so excited. You can't see it very well on the top chart, so I included the bottom chart for illustration purposes of what happened last time we had the breakout excitement.

i like the commentary!

[qqqqtrdr]

I'm still long, but I use the Put/Call 10-day indicator as a solid indicator. If it hits .52 ( almost there ), I'm selling my longs.... Barry

[arbman]

OGM, not to rain on your parade but, the record call buying today was actually selling of the purchases from last week for the most part, how do I know? The reported CBOE open interest declined quite a bit since Friday. Everyone who bought for the rally last week dumped today and the call OI minus put OI is now back to 13M, the same average number pretty much at the lows, this might be entering simply a trading range, but probably higher first. The index open interest should be more for the hedging, I hope they also lightened up today. Otherwise they can easily run the indices higher on their expense into the expirations... For the intermediate term, I agree that the market is stretched and exhausted and it will probably consolidate this range for a week or two, before running higher in August, most likely. So, the excitement is probably all gone, if it gaps lower tomorrow, the chances are pretty high that it will rally again, not necessarily to new highs, but probably... The market is on a mission, Dow 14000 and a weekly close over SPX 1555 is probably going to hit the wires this weekend, it will attract more interest in the markets toward another round of highs in August... - kisa PS. I am (net) short for the pull back after the new highs...

Edited by kisacik, 16 July 2007 - 09:52 PM.

[fib_1618]

Just a cautionary note: the chart shown is a 10 day moving average of the equity P/C ratio which would include last Thursday's 2% up day. Both the CBOE and OEX 10 day's remain under the influence of declining trend lines suggesting that call buying isn't as stimulating as one might think. However, what is interesting to note, last Thursday's advance did generate a buy signal on the Bollinger Put Volume Indicator on OEX options, and both the CBOE (which is an aggregate of all stock options), as well as the equity PVI's, remain neutral at best. In any event, and based on the chart shown, one may only expect a price consolidation at a minimum, and with what the PVI's are suggesting, could turn out to be a quick pause before further resumption of the breakout generated last week. Fib

[arbman]

Exactly Fib, I would think another pull back and another round of call buying in the next high will probably stop this rally, it can take a couple of weeks. For now, it will most likely consolidate...

Edited by kisacik, 16 July 2007 - 09:59 PM.