4 replies to this topic

[Pabst]

I've been looking through the archives at both the position and market opinion polls for evidence that the TT community could in fact be bearish at a market top. I find no confirming data along those lines.

Yet everytime I fade sentiment here I also lose money. What gives?

[Sentient Being]

I think it's just darn hard to make money trading no matter how you do it.

[wyocowboy]

Short term trading is very difficult, and my hat is off to those who successfully execute it - intermediate term (next 3 -6 months) is much easier for me. The trend is bullish, just set your stops at whatever percentage you wish to lose (and it is much easier if you expect to lose money - that way you are never disappointed.)

[OEXCHAOS]

I've been looking through the archives at both the position and market opinion polls for evidence that the TT community could in fact be bearish at a market top. I find no confirming data along those lines.

Yet everytime I fade sentiment here I also lose money. What gives?

This board is generally a tough fade. I will say that whenever you get the opinion poll leaning over 50+% one way or the other, we usually get a move worth trading in the opposite direction. Short term.

Also, I published this yesterday:

To reiterate, we had 23% FL Bulls and 31% FS Bears on Sunday afternoon. When I studied our data pool from 2004 I found that when the Fully Short Bears were above 30% and the Fully Long Bulls were above 20%, 72% of the time we were at a short-term top or at least a multi-day resting place for the market--most times we saw better than a 1% decline start immediately. I was actually quite surprised at this but it does suggest some selling this week..

In my experience, this is peopled with enough folks who know who they are doing well enough that you will often see them positioned properly at a turn. Short term, that is. Longer term, persistent excesses are pretty reliable signals.

Mark

[traderx]

Short term trading is very difficult, and my hat is off to those who successfully execute it - intermediate term (next 3 -6 months) is much easier for me. The trend is bullish, just set your stops at whatever percentage you wish to lose (and it is much easier if you expect to lose money - that way you are never disappointed.)