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The End Game


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#11 OEXCHAOS

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    Mark S. Young

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Posted 18 July 2007 - 06:08 AM

ogm,

Thanks for the detailed explanation. I hear this stuff and often wonder how much is hype and who really knows and who doesn't.

You know, much of this sounds like investment 101. In the great depression leverage caused massive distruction when it went into reverse. To see all these professional outfits taking on massive risk with apparently little understanding or caution...it's almost unbelievable. But I guess...it's human nature and repeats every so often.


Reaching for yield always gets 'em.

I was taught this in 1987, and I was retaught it in 1990 with the "residual reits". Let me repeat it so anyone who reads this remember it:

NEVER, EVER REACH FOR YIELD!

The prettier it's packaged, and the harder it's sold as "appropriate" for "widows and orphans, or anyone else who needs "competitive" current yields, the harder you should look for a way to short it. Your first early warning will be the regular use of the word, "tranche" among non-debt traders.

Reaching for yield almost ALWAYS blows up in someone's face, and almost always in a fashion that's ugly. It often is some poor retiree, but it's even uglier when it's in a leveraged fund that's supposed to insulate investors.

Mark

Mark S Young
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#12 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

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Posted 18 July 2007 - 10:51 AM

P.S. Speaking of P/E's some old talk and a bit of a love-fest

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=245008

Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter


#13 spielchekr

spielchekr

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Posted 24 July 2007 - 07:05 PM

Three funds gone like smoke. And, there are others in the bushes. The ABX foretold it all.

Now, Buy some 10 -30 year bonds or calls, and sit tight for a while. The Fed is going to have to do something, liquidity or lower rates, take your pick or maybe both, but just looking at this thing unwind is not an option.

Oh, and by the way, we topped today too.

Best, Islander. :bear:





That call was a 1st punch in the 1st round knee-buckler. Most excellent. :) It deserves the credit.