OIL - Time to short it
#1
Posted 17 July 2007 - 10:34 PM
#2
Posted 17 July 2007 - 11:04 PM
#3
Posted 17 July 2007 - 11:19 PM
#4
Posted 17 July 2007 - 11:30 PM
" I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on lower long-term rates, buyout speculation and lower commodity prices."
Well, since it was the higher prices in commodity prices that pushed the market up(oil stocks were quite clearly the big SPX "engine")=you may have a problem there. As far as buyout speculation goes, don't you think the ship has sailed there, considering that there are buyouts that were thought to be in the bag already rolling over?
I should have included the link to the writer of the blog.
http://www.hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/
#5
Posted 18 July 2007 - 04:51 AM
Noticed COTS are very very heavy bearish on OIL. Does it look like oil is ripe for a nice pullback in the next several weeks? Might be a good short.
Geopolitics aside
my simplistic chart seems to be playing out..
hope the annotations are visible haven;t changed anything over the last few weeks.
the H&S bearish scenario did not play out
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTI...&a=82593027
break above yesterdays high would probably hint at an attempt for the previous high of last year c.$80
otherwise probably a return to the blue trend line. If that fails we may be opening up for a nice IT downtrend
toward high 40s low 50s again. Seems to be an established seasonality trend of last few years. Repeat? ..
dunno.
wednesday today its crude and gasoline stock reporting day.. That will be the trigger for any ST direction i think.