11 replies to this topic

[kaiser soze]

Reasons 1. T-Bonds strengthening yet bond-spreads widening (lower liquidity) 2. Gold and Gold stocks going up while stocks go down 3. Elevated retail sentiment as measured by equity put call ratios and AAII Bull-Bear ratio 4. Deteriorating market internals 5. Hindenburg Omen. There was one cluster in June. That makes this atleast the second Hindenburg. 6. Huge up day in the Semiconductors yesterday. Usually the semis are the last to make a big move before the market makes an IT top. 7. Weak financials. Especially Investment banks which are supposed to be a leveraged play on the global economy considering their tentacles reach everywhere. 8. Utilities have topped already. 9. Too many people seem convinced the markets are about to go parabolic. Long gold stocks. Scalped QID today for 1% profit. No EOD short positions yet-but watching carefully.

[Drano]

Every time that "Hindenburg" thing gets talked about, the market rallies. As they say, it's called 10 of the last 2 corrections. Even a stopped clock, though.....

[kaiser soze]

The record of the Hindenburg omen is not quite as bad. But yes, it does give false positives. Which is why I have listed it as only one of several factors. Also to remember about the Hindenburg Omen is that the once there is a cluster of Hindenburg Omens, it can take up to three months for the quick decline to materialize.

[rkd80]

The Omen has a much better prediction rate than 20%. It is somewhere in the 75%+ zone, but with a 3 month window it is hardly useful. Although half of the time the omen played out in 41 days.

[NAV]

Hindenburg omen, Three peaks and the domed house, Elliot Wave International free week - mentioning any one of these keywords on this board, has rarely failed in producing violent rallies.

[fib_1618]

Hindenburg omen, Three peaks and the domed house, Elliot Wave International free week - mentioning any one of these keywords on this board, has rarely failed in producing violent rallies.

Too funny.

Fib

[kaiser soze]

Even though my brain is telling me to be short, I pulled the trigger and captured profits on short positions multiple times. Because the near term technicals do favor the bulls. Probably the case with every short out there. Which means the long awaited correction might finally be here. Besides too many people are attached in their minds to the theory of the parabolic blow-off. Oh and btw, another of those much mocked Hindenburg omens is gonna trigger today. I am grateful to Mr.Hindenburg for alerting me to today's profitable sell-off.

[spielchekr]

Today makes it 4 "technically correct" signals. That excludes two others that were just barely under the bar (and disputeable).
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p09638571895&a=104666396&r=2034.png

[kaiser soze]

The cluster keeps building up !?! We got another one today.

[spielchekr]

Because of its very name, the H.O. is oversensationalized. That detracts from the its less exciting but more important message, which is simply that the rotation game is at the stage of becoming unprofitable, especially for those forced to roll out of the growing new lows group into the growing new highs group. And rotation is most of the game. The remainder is endgame.