14 replies to this topic

[ogm]

I had a weak buy signal on DOG today, actually since Wed highs...

Not playing DXD ? It does loom like a W bottowm is forming there, but I was really trying to avoid it for the time being because of all this mega cap madness.

I still think Financials are good shorts, charts are very weak. And SPX and RUT are kinda struggling with the highs.

But now that they got 14k close, DOW may be fair game too. There are quite a few negative divergences starting to form on the weekly.

P.S.. MSFT what a dud huge volume all day, and now trading below the open. Who the f was buying so many shares ? Where they hoping for another IBM ?

Edited by ogm, 19 July 2007 - 04:03 PM.

[arbman]

It is just a system scan, if I had to take a leveraged ETF play, I would probably pick that one on DJI...

[Pabst]

I'm short so I'm certainly not trying to cheer lead, but if this market was ready to fall apart then NQ would already be down 20 tonight. In fact I can think of two other times when GOOG missed and produced 20-30pt selloffs AH in NQ. Not to mention MSFT the largest cap in the index also got wasted after the close.

I've been operating on a July/98 fractal but more and more I think it's July-Aug/97. That is extended chop, bear sentiment= another two weeks of churn followed by a decidingly shallow selloff.

Edited by Pabst, 19 July 2007 - 06:26 PM.

[arbman]

I agree that the sell off in the futures is not much, perhaps NDX will see about 0.6-0.7% down tomorrow, but that's about it... This might also produce a huge reversal for tomorrow... Pabst, what's your downside target for tomorrow, do you expect a sling shot rally?

[Pabst]

I agree that the sell off in the futures is not much, perhaps NDX will see about 0.6-0.7% down tomorrow, but that's about it...

This might also produce a huge reversal for tomorrow...

Pabst, what's your downside target for tomorrow, do you expect a sling shot rally?

I think the index highs are basically in. I'll stomach new penetrations of .5% or so. 1559 still seems tagable. However due to excessive shorts any breaks for the time being will be muted. To wit: yesterday. To wit: tonight. So logic say's To wit: to-morrow.

NDX's large contract size makes it an attractive vehicle but I'd stay away from monthly cycles that don't have a corresponding futures expiration. SET is a b*tch. A very crappy system of settlement. NQ Futures could be -5 and NDX SET will be -15.

I'll give you some free advice that cost me a fortune a few years back. For odd months buck the cost and trade QQQQ. (only if of course you're holding into expiration) For the Spoo's trade ES opts. In Mch, Jun, Sept and Dec you're fine with SPX and NDX. Here's why. What I did when I traded a lot of SPX was on early Friday morning I would hedge my position with the thinly traded front month future also expiring on the open. SET in ES is the same price as SET in SPX. Likewise expiring NQ goes off at the same value as NDX. Hence I had no SET (basis) risk. A few years back I was long some calls that index wise were about 8 pts in the money. Instead SET was 6 points under cash!! It happens often......