9 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Nasdaq... My stuff says this is not quite over...

Factor #1 - With blowout volume and a gap down yesterday we missed testing the Wednesday's lows.. could not break it. (Stealth Sign of Strength)

Factor #2 - Tops are not made on strong volume, and that is what we had on Thursday at the high...

I've seen a lot of comment about distribution on the board, that's what you expect at market tops. But knowing when the top is IN is an entirely different matter. You will notice from the chart that not only did we not test Wednesday's lows but they were able to close it back inside the lower trend line. I would expect we're going to rally off this low we made on Friday further, possibly as high as the upper trend line before the volume finally peters out and a high volume downtrend that breaks the swing lows comes... You may not think that not breaking Wednesday's low is a big deal, but it was...

BEAR BAIT.

Edited by SemiBizz, 21 July 2007 - 10:52 AM.

[relax]

Great arguments nonetheless i think any gain on monday will be sold and we will revisit friday's lows after a week of terrible earnings, there is little fuel for big short covering maybe apple earnings could do the job but for monday the negative sentiment should return what about your july 27 date - are you seeing a top or a bottom here?

Edited by relax_dk, 21 July 2007 - 11:25 AM.

[SemiBizz]

I fully expect Nasdaq to go higher next week based on these observations, whether or not we go lower on Monday. Do not overlook that Friday may have been a "washout"... When these things magically turn up cents above the swing lows that would have been broken on volume I am always suspicious...

[relax]

also makes perfect sense that 2.670 area should have been broken on the high volume but the way the market has been toying with us back and forth with all these gaps, maybe they toy with us with volume but technically there is no reason to be really negative until we close above the upper BB, I don't expect a parabolic move to 2.892 therefore 2.740 + 10 points is really the maximum for me i'll also be watching 2.670 and gap area at 2.652 (also 2.631 area, where the gap of last week was closed) enjoy the weekend Semi

[arbman]

Semi, the index did not close above that trend line, it only tested it from the bottom, look at the hourly charts, but both RUA and SPX closed above the same trend line. So, this is a very notable change in between the Nasdaq vs NYSE stocks now for Friday. I am thinking just like Nasdaq pulled everything higher since early June NYSE stocks will pull everything lower next. It is the time for the snap back for the next 1-1.5 wks and it will probably overshoot on the downside, especially if the oil stocks have topped. The internal strength was not good enough this week to expect another push, imho. I expect higher later in August, I don't know about a higher high or lower high though...

[SemiBizz]

We'll see. I don't see the conditions yet for this top to be in... Of course, I can be wrong. I think SOX goes to 575 here.

Edited by SemiBizz, 21 July 2007 - 02:15 PM.

[SemiBizz]

I think there's going to be a lot of shocked bears next week... Firstly, the index is not that bearish... but then I examined the charts of the key stocks... like all the SOX stocks, there's only 2 here that are weak... XLNX and TSM. Your MSFT is ready to spring and test the high from Thursday. CSCO still strong. You are going to have to come up with stronger reasons than the ones you listed to be bearish... you look at those charts yourself and decide.

[arbman]

I went flat because it didn't look like a clear break. I am not looking for a big top immediately, something of a consolidation variety first and the sell offs should look scary due to the bull market nature. There was tremendous momentum up to this far, but then a lot of the advance looks like speculation due to the way they are selling them and how the divergence grew and grew in between the Nasdaq and NYSE stocks...

MSFT sold on huge volume on Friday, I think it wants to consolidate around here. It will be very hard for MSFT to move above its high right away, imho.

I did not like a bit Cisco going completely flat this week after the large volume last week, the last few times the stock did this, it retraced all of its gains.

Google is another story, the management outright admits they can not grow any more aggressively quarter after quarter, it is a good stock for the long term, but the short term juice is gone.

Intel just tested the huge break down area from 2005, the early buyers from June completely dumped the stock two days ago. It should test and accumulate at the lower prices.

I have no idea where Apple will break, but they started to distribute on that stock.

Oracle is completing a rising wedge on mediocre volume imho, it will probably pull back unless it breaks down there. They tried to rally the stock to save NDX on Friday and it only looked like it just topped as well.

Comcast is building a double top with gigantic volume for monhts and if this was the consolidation, it should've been leading with the Nasdaq rally, imho, same with Qualcomm. Infosys is also unlikely to break out of its range for now, it looks like a retest of the highs with lower volume to me, same with Amazon...

Ericsson just began its downtrend with the huge volume sell off, it should bounce for a few days.

Dell is in an uptrend, the volume surged this week, but not the price, it is a warning. Amgen is pretty much headed for the 40-50 range, same with Yahoo.

Ebay also got sold off, it wants to probably consolidate. Rimm is also running on less and less volume, if the market consolidates, I am pretty sure it will too.

If it sells off for 2-3 days and flushes out the weaks until the strong supports, it should rally one more time into August...

Anyhow, good luck...
- kisa


PS. for the oils, look at their implied volatilities; XLE, OIH. They started to increase with the rally now...

[SemiBizz]

Case by case... MSFT - Pulled back Friday on lighter volume leaving high volume untested high... that will test. GOOG - Look carefully on the chart, even with that huge volume pullback, it was unable to test the previous spike range from 2/1/07 - net result... higher high higher volume. CSCO - Consolidating at higher levels... unable to break even with the big Nasdaq disasters on Wed. and Friday. INTC - Gets under the high volume high of 7/12 as well as all the succeeding high volume lows and immediately springs off of it. ORCL - makes a higher high on higher volume Friday and then pulls back... but not under any high volume swing lows. DELL - Could pullback under 28 here, but no real signs of weakness, you can bet unless they pre-announce they will buy the earnings mystery due in a couple of weeks or so. EBAY - Gets under the last day of extreme volume low from 4/19 and bounces back RIMM - could retest 226.32 low from 7/16 again I suppose, but why didn't it get under it on Wed and Friday with all the weakness in Nasdaq? Now with regard to Comcast and Ericcson... I don't see these stocks as being that relevant. i.e. they can tank hard and Nasdaq will not even feel it. One more to look at though is: IBM - gets under the yearly high from Thursday's blowout volume gap up and then closes inside that day's trading range on Friday... classic bullish spring. So... show me the weakness. Dell is probably the weakest of those charts, and that is sort of expected given the fact they can't even produce financial statements... I would throw those brown tinted sunglasses away for now... we're going higher. Wed and Friday were classic bear baiting bull traps...

[emdee]

In regards to yesterday's volume I think it bears mention that there has been a tendency for volume to be quite high on options expiry day. Fwiw...Mike