8 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

Doesn't preclude another high but divergence is miserable....I've boxed a similar area on both...(this is the 34ema of nymo and namo respectively)



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[borland]

TP, Nice work! I'm still puzzled by your earlier post.... Your Bubble chart on "Peak Breadth"...... I don't understand why breadth would peak so early in the bubble and bottom at the price top? Your good at Fib analysis. Have you done this to project whether the recent $NYAD peak is aligned with a Fib?

Edited by borland, 22 July 2007 - 07:22 PM.

[Caduceus]

Thanks for sharing your work. I always read your posts. I am thinking that the 1475 area is likely to hold if/when we have a correction. Mainly due to the extreme bullishness of the Commercials as can be seen in the COT report. I would guess this will be a complex bottom (to shake out the small specs who are also heavily long). Here is a chart I created yesterday very similar to yours: [attachment=5763:attachment]

[thespookyone]

Yes, the divergence is miserable-kinda. You could have also shown a chart of NALOW, which may have raised a few eyebrows, being now hat a higher point than before the drop in March-sitting at 191. On the other hand, on this runup, the macd on the NDX did make higher numbers, somewhat erasing the negative divergence that preceeded this last bump up. PPO on the Naz also made new highs, ADX seemed to bottom way under 20 and then recross, signaling a move up. Dropping to the breakout area for a backtest, then moving right back up isn't giving me any real reason to growl, yet. Breadth has also been incredibly poor on the way up, but in a market that is so clearly being engineered up -does it represent anything more than rotation? I'm sure not saying that the market won't unravel like a cheap sweater-but not waiting to see the frayed yarn here could be quite costly. Spooky

[eminimee]

Borland...no...no fib work with nyad cum....but Fib (Dave, who posts) has an ewave count that does take that 97 breadth top into consideration. I had his count somewhere but can't find it...he might post again if he reads this.

[Islander]

Good work and the conclusion seems highly probably on the lower limit you have indicated. My work has shown caution for the next week or so, then the probablility of a real wipe out. Too many investors have the trigger loaded. I am not negative on all sectors, however. I am suspicious of gold since it near its RSI high. The broker dealers are, for me, a key to the direction, and it is down. Then, later, maybe a run up into the 2008 elections. Islander.

[traderpaul]

Doesn't preclude another high but divergence is miserable....I've boxed a similar area on both...(this is the 34ema of nymo and namo respectively)

Did not follow this market that close but shocked to find out the the $NYMO is at -36 when the indexe was days away from a multi-year high.....So this market was runing on fumes....

[arbman]

My work has shown caution for the next week or so, then the probablility of a real wipe out.

If you compare the current setup in A/D and new highs vs new lows, the market is quite strong despite its current weakness compared to the 1996 or 1998 events. There were months of A/D divergences and much fewer companies were leading the prices to the stratosphere. The current market is stretched, but not that much, the internals are not that bad. The financials have given enough discount and got accumulated with the heavy volume for now, these lows should be retest over the next 2-3 wks and bounce one more time into August. I would think that a melt-down scenario can play later in fall, if nothing improves during the summer. This might not be all that likely, especially if nasdaq continues to lead. I was thinking that the nasdaq stocks would be eventually pulled in the direction of the nyse stocks, but then maybe not, or not yet. So, I think it is too early to get too bearish...

[eminimee]

kisacik: Agreed..and I've tried to show both sides of the coin over the weekend when it comes to internals.....price is king right now.