13 replies to this topic

[ogm]

DUG .. Pro Shares Inverse oil and gas

Hint.. The driving season peak is coming to an end. Geopolitics are all priced in, and arabs ready to open more spiggots. And there is NO PEAK OIL.


Either way, looks like it can be a good 10% here with limited risk to stops at new lows. There can be much more then 10% too.

Edited by ogm, 24 July 2007 - 02:24 PM.

[bnick]

DUG .. Pro Shares Inverse oil and gas

Hint.. The driving season peak is coming to an end. Geopolitics are all priced in, and arabs ready to open more spiggots. And there is NO PEAK OIL.


Either way, looks like it can be a good 10% here with limited risk to stops at new lows. There can be much more then 10% too.

Methinks those Jan 08 USO ATM puts look darn cheap...

[ChickenLittle]

DUG .. Pro Shares Inverse oil and gas

Hint.. The driving season peak is coming to an end. Geopolitics are all priced in, and arabs ready to open more spiggots. And there is NO PEAK OIL.

OGM, what are your fundamental reasons regarding peak oil???

[ogm]

DUG .. Pro Shares Inverse oil and gas

Hint.. The driving season peak is coming to an end. Geopolitics are all priced in, and arabs ready to open more spiggots. And there is NO PEAK OIL.

OGM, what are your fundamental reasons regarding peak oil???

I think there is no peak oil. I think its if MO published a paid report about peak tobacco
I think most of this rally is just geoploitics and speculation. Liquidity is now deflating and geopolitics can only get better.

Besides I think Oil will be gradualy replaced by new fuels. Most car manufacturers already lining up mass production of hybrids of all kinds, and even with those hybrids, you can use ethanol, like E85, its just a matter of building out the infrastructure.

Basicaly, I'm very bullish on alternative enrgies and very negative on fossil fuels. I think these last couple years only accelerated the new revolution in energy sources.

Another thing.. politics... In case democrats will win presidency next year, there will be lilkely pull out from Iraq, general geopolitical situation will soften up more. And they will definitely close the tax loopholes and tax breaks for the oil companies. And redirect them to the alt fuels.

I see oil companies aren't investing in expansion. They choose to buy back stocks,. they aren't building more refineries, and so on... I think they see it coming from all sides. There is no future in oil, and they know it.

[ChickenLittle]

DUG .. Pro Shares Inverse oil and gas

Hint.. The driving season peak is coming to an end. Geopolitics are all priced in, and arabs ready to open more spiggots. And there is NO PEAK OIL.

OGM, what are your fundamental reasons regarding peak oil???

I think there is no peak oil. I think its if MO published a paid report about peak tobacco
I think most of this rally is just geoploitics and speculation. Liquidity is now deflating and geopolitics can only get better.

Besides I think Oil will be gradualy replaced by new fuels. Most car manufacturers already lining up mass production of hybrids of all kinds, and even with those hybrids, you can use ethanol, like E85, its just a matter of building out the infrastructure.

Basicaly, I'm very bullish on alternative enrgies and very negative on fossil fuels. I think these last couple years only accelerated the new revolution in energy sources.

Another thing.. politics... In case democrats will win presidency next year, there will be lilkely pull out from Iraq, general geopolitical situation will soften up more. And they will definitely close the tax loopholes and tax breaks for the oil companies. And redirect them to the alt fuels.

I see oil companies aren't investing in expansion. They choose to buy back stocks,. they aren't building more refineries, and so on... I think they see it coming from all sides. There is no future in oil, and they know it.

Have you read the Hirsch report, it's a government prepared report??? It lays out all of your points but implementation takes time and that is the rub. If you don't have the report I can send it to you (pdf file).

[ogm]

DUG .. Pro Shares Inverse oil and gas

Hint.. The driving season peak is coming to an end. Geopolitics are all priced in, and arabs ready to open more spiggots. And there is NO PEAK OIL.

OGM, what are your fundamental reasons regarding peak oil???

I think there is no peak oil. I think its if MO published a paid report about peak tobacco
I think most of this rally is just geoploitics and speculation. Liquidity is now deflating and geopolitics can only get better.

Besides I think Oil will be gradualy replaced by new fuels. Most car manufacturers already lining up mass production of hybrids of all kinds, and even with those hybrids, you can use ethanol, like E85, its just a matter of building out the infrastructure.

Basicaly, I'm very bullish on alternative enrgies and very negative on fossil fuels. I think these last couple years only accelerated the new revolution in energy sources.

Another thing.. politics... In case democrats will win presidency next year, there will be lilkely pull out from Iraq, general geopolitical situation will soften up more. And they will definitely close the tax loopholes and tax breaks for the oil companies. And redirect them to the alt fuels.

I see oil companies aren't investing in expansion. They choose to buy back stocks,. they aren't building more refineries, and so on... I think they see it coming from all sides. There is no future in oil, and they know it.

Have you read the Hirsch report, it's a government prepared report??? It lays out all of your points but implementation takes time and that is the rub. If you don't have the report I can send it to you (pdf file).

Bush government ? Don't get me wrong I'm not looking to get into political discussion... I probably shouldn't have mentioned that factor at all.

But as I said the investment into alternative tech has accelerated. So it means even if oil supply flatlines, the replacement will come faster, since technology is developing faster, and the demand factor will be affected.

Edited by ogm, 24 July 2007 - 03:08 PM.

[bnick]

OGM--you are way off. "Alternative" energy is nothing but a give-away to the farmers. There is no energy source that offers the energy density that gasoline offers. That's why crude-based and coal fuels will remain the top choice going forward, at least from a cost perspective. No "alternative" energy source can compete on price with fossil fuels. As to your claim that the oil companies aren't investing in infrastructure, might I suggest some follow-up reading, such as the links below.


http://www.chevron.c...005-12-08_1.asp

http://findarticles....17/ai_n16780460

[johngeorge]

ogm Thanks for the heads up on DUG. Looks to me like a very good buy here so I'm a gonna git me sum. But too late for buying today. Best to you

[ChickenLittle]

OGM--you are way off. "Alternative" energy is nothing but a give-away to the farmers. There is no energy source that offers the energy density that gasoline offers. That's why crude-based and coal fuels will remain the top choice going forward, at least from a cost perspective. No "alternative" energy source can compete on price with fossil fuels. As to your claim that the oil companies aren't investing in infrastructure, might I suggest some follow-up reading, such as the links below.


http://www.chevron.c...005-12-08_1.asp

http://findarticles....17/ai_n16780460

Without government support for ethanol, it would fail. It's just another boondoggle.

[PorkLoin]

I doubt we have seen peak prices in oil yet. Ethanol itself requires a lot of petroleum to prepare the ground for corn and all the other field stuff - planting, tilling, harvesting, etc., and fertilizer and transportation and so on.

Don't know if the actual processing of corn into ethanol consumes much oil or natural gas, but have read that ethanol isn't great as far as net energy gain. Some people say it's actually a net negative, i.e. it takes more energy to produce than it gives up when burned. Others say there is some gain, but no question that it's a far cry from oil, which overall gives about 400% more energy than it takes to get it.

Even with increasing use of ethanol and alternative energy sources, overall energy consumption will very likely continue to rise, and I wonder if the alternative stuff can even keep up with the increase, let alone more than compensate for it. May be that we keep using more and more oil even with the alternatives taking a higher percentage. Worldwide, seems to me that's very likely, at least for some years into the future.

Doug