8 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Once we broke the ES 1529.75 pivot i mentioned yesterday, it was certain that the breakout was a fakeout. We are now in the final wave C of the IT correction that started in early June. Based on the wave structure, we are now in an expanded flat correction which targets SPX 1478-80 cash.






There's a slightly bullish alternate count, but improbable, given the way the wave is unfolding at this point, but nevertheless a possibility - an irregular flat. This count has a target of SPX 1495 cash.




Watching the bounce out of the above two mentioned areas will give clues, as to which one is the right count. Once the IT correction i.e the wave C concludes, another large advance towards SPX 1600-1620 should begin.


Enjoy the ride.

Edited by NAV, 25 July 2007 - 05:33 AM.

[skyymaster]

Once we broke the ES 1529.75 pivot i mentioned yesterday, it was certain that the breakout was a fakeout. We are now in the final wave C of the IT correction that started in early June. Based on the wave structure, we are now in an expanded flat correction which targets SPX 1478-80 cash.






There's a slightly bullish alternate count, but improbable, given the way the wave is unfolding at this point, but nevertheless a possibility - an irregular flat. This count has a target of SPX 1495 cash.




Watching the bounce out of the above two mentioned areas will give clues, as to which one is the right count. Once the IT correction i.e the wave C concludes, another large advance towards SPX 1600-1620 should begin.


Enjoy the ride.

Nav, the low on June 24th was 1484. It will be interesting to see if this is going to be "Bear Bait" Head and Shoulders pattern. However, there is a gap at 145.32-145.82 for SPY. Not sure if that is going to matter or fill. But something to be aware of.

Thanks and good luck.

[ogm]

Here is my 2 cents. For what its worth.

[LarryT]

Once we broke the ES 1529.75 pivot i mentioned yesterday, it was certain that the breakout was a fakeout. We are now in the final wave C of the IT correction that started in early June. Based on the wave structure, we are now in an expanded flat correction which targets SPX 1478-80 cash.






There's a slightly bullish alternate count, but improbable, given the way the wave is unfolding at this point, but nevertheless a possibility - an irregular flat. This count has a target of SPX 1495 cash.




Watching the bounce out of the above two mentioned areas will give clues, as to which one is the right count. Once the IT correction i.e the wave C concludes, another large advance towards SPX 1600-1620 should begin.


Enjoy the ride.

The wave count from my point of view has a wave four triangle from the March 2007 low completed at the 1556 high and we are in the early stages of a correction of that entire wave. Yesterdays low hit the .232 retrace at 1512. July up cycle projected low at 1495 is the key support to monitor next three days. Since next week has an up bias if 1495 is supported by Friday and we close below 1510 this week the up bias next week is the key. If 1530 is not traded above next week then 1460 or lower will be seen by 8-10-07.

My analysis has 1556 as the top for the entire history of our markets, a super cycle top. Projected high today for the cash is 1525.

Good Luck,
LT

[VolPivots]

NAV, I have something similar to your 2nd take, but now that I've seen 2 posted downside targets this morning, probably ain't gonna happen

This mornings stop-run / "island reversal" opening print goal is something north of 1532. Rydex traders heavily bought the "dip" yesterday....and da levered bears capitulated. They must be thinking BEAR BAIT

[NAV]

My analysis has 1556 as the top for the entire history of our markets, a super cycle top.

You will be famous

[LarryT]

My analysis has 1556 as the top for the entire history of our markets, a super cycle top.

You will be famous

NOT, called the top in 2000 and called NASDAQ would drop below 1000 and everybody thought I had lost my mind. EVERYBODY says its going to 7,000 was the thinking in 2000. Same thing this time, everybody will think he is nuts.

[NAV]

My analysis has 1556 as the top for the entire history of our markets, a super cycle top.

You will be famous

NOT, called the top in 2000 and called NASDAQ would drop below 1000 and everybody thought I had lost my mind. EVERYBODY says its going to 7,000 was the thinking in 2000. Same thing this time, everybody will think he is nuts.

If this was the supercycle top, what's your ultimate downside target for SPX ? Just for the record.

[LarryT]

My analysis has 1556 as the top for the entire history of our markets, a super cycle top.

You will be famous

NOT, called the top in 2000 and called NASDAQ would drop below 1000 and everybody thought I had lost my mind. EVERYBODY says its going to 7,000 was the thinking in 2000. Same thing this time, everybody will think he is nuts.

If this was the supercycle top, what's your ultimate downside target for SPX ? Just for the record.

To early for that, need to see conformation this is the top, its just a call for now.