8 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

The rally failed, and it was obvious that it would when you look at the Rydexers. They were buying the snot out of the market on Tuesday. Especially the Amateurs. Now, the rest of the sentiment shows little real increase in Bearishness. Guys, we need a little fear. This is no longer an up trend. The daily is down. The weekly is down. The cumulative A/D line is down. The cumulative A/D volume is down. The Russell is getting it in the neck. And now, nobody needs an uptick to get short. Watch 'em pile on. VIX should explode higher. When it does, and we feel like we did LAST July, THEN let's pick a bottom. T-4 probably got all it was going to. MACD Sell should trigger a rally within 3 days. Unless that pathetic bounce was all we get. I'll vote for a low today or tomorrow that brings a tradable rally. Mark

[phloat]

Watch 'em pile on. VIX should explode higher. When it does, and we feel like we did LAST July, THEN let's pick a bottom.

If this decline continues to happen as is, so fast.. it will be hard to feel like last last July, its got J6P (=me) quite complacent. When it stops feeling like a quick jab at the doctors, and more like "oh oh we need to run more tests but need to book you into the hospital", then maybe we can call on sentiment to bottom fish?

dunno..fwiw just expressing what i feel.. may not be in line with what you are talking about.. but two more days
for a bottom sounds too soon..

[mss]

Not looking too good at the present. Expect a very choppy 2 days and even a deep drop again. There is a small chance that we get a great rally Friday, small, but a chance. JMHO

Nothing big has changed my outlook from Tuesday. Not yet anyway
mss

[eminimee]

Not quite as bearish a count as the 1,2,1,2,1,2 posted earlier....but bearish all the same





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[OEXCHAOS]

I said "A low" in the next couple sessions, not "THE low". I just know that there's close to a 90% chance of a tradable bounce within 4 days of an MACD Sell. Of course, with the volatility that we're getting, it might be hard to know when you've had that tradable bounce. I'll watch the sentiment and the volume to tell me if I'm wrong or early (or even right ).

[arbman]

I threw in there some random MACDs to compare, the settings don't represent anything, fwiw...

[ChickenLittle]

Not quite as bearish a count as the 1,2,1,2,1,2 posted earlier....but bearish all the same





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FWIW - On Tea's chart, I would say that we have a low when we complete the 5 on the CURRENT wave down. No more likely after that. Gotta have lotsa fear on the bottom. As Mark pointed out, there is no real fear yet.

[kamakazeman]

The rally failed, and it was obvious that it would when you look at the Rydexers. They were buying the snot out of the market on Tuesday. Especially the Amateurs.

Now, the rest of the sentiment shows little real increase in Bearishness.

Guys, we need a little fear. This is no longer an up trend. The daily is down. The weekly is down. The cumulative A/D line is down. The cumulative A/D volume is down. The Russell is getting it in the neck.

And now, nobody needs an uptick to get short.

Watch 'em pile on. VIX should explode higher. When it does, and we feel like we did LAST July, THEN let's pick a bottom.

T-4 probably got all it was going to. MACD Sell should trigger a rally within 3 days. Unless that pathetic bounce was all we get. I'll vote for a low today or tomorrow that brings a tradable rally.

Mark

So, taking a l@@K at the TICK, 60 min and daily, it appears that TICK has been in a mikl downtrend most of July, the surpise being that it l@@ks to be a mild trend, with a 'spike" bottom late on the > 24th < and appears to be trending up, notwithstanding today's debacle.
L@@Ks bullish so at least a ST bottom may be at hand,
But,
the pesky fly in this senario is so many on this board predicting that same ST bottom, hard rallies, etc.
Scary!

WHOOPS!
What a difference 5 minnits makes! Scary, ain't it?
Will this be the spike bottom?

Edited by kamakazeman, 26 July 2007 - 10:14 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

It FEELS soo good to try to pick a bottom here. I'm very concerned by my willingness to try. So far, no excuse to. M