Edited by ogm, 26 July 2007 - 11:00 AM.
NYMO... very rare occurance. Deeply oversold
Started by
ogm
, Jul 26 2007 10:58 AM
5 replies to this topic
#1
ogm
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Posted 26 July 2007 - 10:58 AM
No kidding. I only found 5 occasions in the past 7 years where NYMO looked like this. And yes, thats including the 2001 bear market.
I'll post charts in a bit. Only in 1 case the market had a flatish small bounce over the next few days, but in other cases there was quite a significant tradable rally.
And though I'm not an agressive buyer here, I beleive that holding heavy short positions is too much risk. So I took my profits and waiting for 60 minn summatiuons to turn so I could go long.
#2
wallyw
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Posted 26 July 2007 - 11:06 AM
No kidding. I only found 5 occasions in the past 7 years where NYMO looked like this. And yes, thats including the 2001 bear market.
I'll post charts in a bit. Only in 1 case the market had a flatish small bounce over the next few days, but in other cases there was quite a significant tradable rally.
And though I'm not an agressive buyer here, I beleive that holding heavy short positions is too much risk. So I took my profits and waiting for 60 minn summatiuons to turn so I could go long.
minus 300 is not uncommon. minus 70 is nothing.
#3
Woody
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Posted 26 July 2007 - 11:21 AM
No kidding. I only found 5 occasions in the past 7 years where NYMO looked like this. And yes, thats including the 2001 bear market.
I'll post charts in a bit. Only in 1 case the market had a flatish small bounce over the next few days, but in other cases there was quite a significant tradable rally.
And though I'm not an agressive buyer here, I beleive that holding heavy short positions is too much risk. So I took my profits and waiting for 60 minn summatiuons to turn so I could go long.
OGM.......of course internal low likely will preceed any price low, bounces notwithstanding....
#4
tommyt
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Posted 26 July 2007 - 11:40 AM
OGM..where is the MCO currently?
#5
ogm
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Posted 26 July 2007 - 11:44 AM
OGM..where is the MCO currently?
I have a different formula on my system for some reason, but its at February bottom level. Would be under 100 in normal formula. Its actually slightly below February bottom .. and I mean not the 500 dow point drop day, but the very bottom day. 03/05/07....
My MCO that day closed at -305, today its -326
Edited by ogm, 26 July 2007 - 11:47 AM.
#6
ogm
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Posted 26 July 2007 - 11:55 AM
Comparable days are
3/5/07 - the very last day of the selloff that started in February.
3/23/05 - this was the only day that reading didn't mark the VERY bottom before a strong rally. Just a flatish uptrend. All other days were followed by a strong rally.
5/10/04 - the very bottom, followed by a strong rally.
07/23//02 - the very bottom, followed by a strong rally.
09/20/01 (there were 2 days in a row with that reading. Severe selloff in the bear market, followed by a very strong rally)
These are the only 5 occasions I found in the past 7 year. In 4 of them it was a chance to cover shorts and go long. in 1 it was still a ST bottom, but the uptrend was flattish.
In each of them the market was higher 2-3 days later.
My comp is overloaded with Tradestation activity, so I can post the charts right now, but take a look at those days, you'll see what I mean.
Edited by ogm, 26 July 2007 - 11:58 AM.
