12 replies to this topic

[ogm]

I'm too stupid to overlay the NYSE chart on the NyMO chart in stockcharts, but here is the basic idea....

This is a very rare oversold condition. It happened only 5 times before. 4 times it was at the very bottom and was immidiately followed by a strong tradable rally. One more time, we had a small flattish rally, then lower low, and only then a powerfull rally.

Either way, I'm betting with the odds here, that we have a bottom of some sort for the time being.

Considering we just had 3 month worth of a rally wiped out in 3 days, there's bound to be some bargain hunting effort.

Edited by ogm, 26 July 2007 - 05:13 PM.

[gorydog]

I'm too stupid to overlay the NYSE chart on the NyMO chart in stockcharts, but here is the basic idea....

This is a very rare oversold condition. It happened only 5 times before. 4 times it was at the very bottom and was immidiately followed by a strong tradable rally. One more time, we had a small flattish rally, then lower low, and only then a powerfull rally.

Either way, I'm betting with the odds here, that we have a bottom of some sort for the time being.

Considering we just had 3 month worth of a rally wiped out in 3 days, there's bound to be some bargain hunting effort.

If GDP comes in totally crap, I thing crash could happen. I am fully long from the low of the day(I picked it almost perfectly, a rare time I was actually right!), so I hope someone will offer to pull the falling knife out of my a** if that happens.

GD

[ogm]

I've updated it with SPX.

[arbman]

I think the late 20 point rally was the bounce that was supposed to happen tomorrow morning, it could rally into the close again maybe, I am not sure it will rally in the morning...

[ogm]

I think the late 20 point rally was the bounce that was supposed to happen tomorrow morning, it could rally into the close again maybe, I am not sure it will rally in the morning...

I wouldn't be surprized if there will be a lot of volatility in a range in the next couple days first. But... There is an upward move coming. Internals are too oversold. I think next week will be up. Too many stocks have been selling for too long.

Notice, on that chart, there is always an upward move. Even if it reverses after that rally and makes new lows, like in 2001 bear market, there is still a tradable rally.
Or look what it did in 1998. And I think most people are comparing this to 1998, including myself. That reading on MCO was THE bottom back then. It was retested, but that was it.

My 60 min summations are stomped into the ground too. it will take a couple days for them to reverse, thats why I think we'll be treading water first. But who knows, we may start running right on GDP.

I think GDP will be "better then expected" whatever it is. Just because expectations are pretty bad now.

Edited by ogm, 26 July 2007 - 06:20 PM.

[ogm]

Take a look at this one. Volatility is crazy, and it has 30 points room to the neares strong resistance. At least from my perspective.

[arbman]

Of course there will be a rally, I think it will look more or less the aftershocks of Feb 27th. A rally attempt in the morning, probably another sell off intraday and another late rally attempt, then there will be a 2-3 days of mild sell offs and then probably a rally later next week...

[zman]

Of course there will be a rally, I think it will look more or less the aftershocks of Feb 27th. A rally attempt in the morning, probably another sell off intraday and another late rally attempt, then there will be a 2-3 days of mild sell offs and then probably a rally later next week...

thinking old ben will drop in with some money for the market...thinking 6bil worth if i remember correctly for tomorrow..but agree it shud be short lived though

[ogm]

Of course there will be a rally, I think it will look more or less the aftershocks of Feb 27th. A rally attempt in the morning, probably another sell off intraday and another late rally attempt, then there will be a 2-3 days of mild sell offs and then probably a rally later next week...

But what will happen after that rally, thats the question. I'm not so sure we're making a 4.5 year low with a bright future ahead of us. I think liquidity and housing problems are real, and getting worse, and there is still a lot of fluff in the market. So I'm not counting on any spectacular runs to all time highs. Once we get that upward move, I'll short into it. Because I think this market has turned and will be selling into October.

[arbman]

I do not think Chairman Bernanke is getting involved in these days, he must be primarily concerned about the USD and US Treasuries at the moment, or inflation. This country has still a huge debt to service, even if it stops borrowing now and we know it won't. The markets are merely 5.5% off from the highs, this is nothing compared to billions of dollars at risk for the borrowing costs, if the rates go higher. There is also the risk of foreigners selling more the US equities because of the weak dollar. I would think that the Fed would start to act after some 8-10% decline this time and stop it around 10-12%. The US equities will be attractively priced for a long term buy and hold there. No institution should step in here, if the correction stops here and gains another 8% toward the new highs and then there will be a bigger crisis with the credit and USD. I expect the trend to stay down until Sep or Oct, the credit growth rate at the banks is also still declining, no new money is coming in for a while... Maybe, the market will form a right shoulder this summer, toward the final lows in fall... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 26 July 2007 - 07:10 PM.