12 replies to this topic

[U.F.O.]

Wanna be brave after today's price action? Go long. Wanna make money? Go or stay short. (2 charts)

U.F.O.

[ogm]

Hmm.. over the longer term, maybe, but.... take a look at this one...

Keep in mind that brokers where our downside leaders. Now we are at the bottom of the channel, same volume spike, reversal candle on huge volume, with a long tail, just like at previous bottom. Either way, looks to me like MER has at least stabilized for the moment. If Brokers stabilized the market will stabilize.

Edited by ogm, 26 July 2007 - 07:30 PM.

[arbman]

ogm, what kind of a rally do you expect exactly? I am pretty sure everyone is expecting a bounce at the moment, I mean you need to be more specific. The low is made on higher volume than the previous low, this means the momentum is on the downside, there needs to be at least another low attempt before the lows are sealed. I doubt that any rally will be able to advance beyond the gaps on MER, just draw a horizontal line from its first lows in March... - kisa

[nimblebear]

ogm, what kind of a rally do you expect exactly? I am pretty sure everyone is expecting a bounce at the moment, I mean you need to be more specific. The low is made on higher volume than the previous low, this means the momentum is on the downside, there needs to be at least another low attempt before the lows are sealed. I doubt that any rally will be able to advance beyond the gaps on MER, just draw a horizontal line from its first lows in March...

- kisa

Thats what makes this classic. Everyone ! is trained to "buy the dip." I can hear old Clint now..." Go ahead. Make my Day ! "

[ogm]

ogm, what kind of a rally do you expect exactly? I am pretty sure everyone is expecting a bounce at the moment, I mean you need to be more specific. The low is made on higher volume than the previous low, this means the momentum is on the downside, there needs to be at least another low attempt before the lows are sealed. I doubt that any rally will be able to advance beyond the gaps on MER, just draw a horizontal line from its first lows in March...

- kisa

I don't think everyone is expecting a bounce. There is no concensus on that one. Not on the message boards, and certainly not in tonite's polls. I actually like having a feeling that I have to argue my position, that people are being sceptical.

What I'm expecting is a few days worth of a rally. That will start off shaky and slowly, and by the end of the next week late to the party shorts will be covering in a hurry. After that, we'll see. I don't like the looks of longer term charts. But internals are very oversold here.

We weren't selling for the past 3 days. Its the indexes were selling for 3 days, a lkot of stocks were selling for weeks. The index drop might have just been capitulation. You know when the leaders give up.

Look at that MER chart, its not a 3 day drop, it was dropping for quite a while, and lost quite a lot. I'd say just looking at the chart it can easily go to 80-82. Thats good enough for me. If it goes there, I'll sell the in the money calls and wait till expiration. Premiums are very good these days.

Edited by ogm, 26 July 2007 - 08:09 PM.

[U.F.O.]

If you buy oversold and sell overbought.....continually. You'll continually go broke. O/B O/S indicators can remain in play for months. There are better ways to trade. U.F.O.

[eminimee]

just wait for oex 672 and buy it.

[ogm]

Thanks everyone for disagreeing with me Couldn't make me feel more comfortable. Though I think it will be shaky, and I wouldn't exclude a possibility of a lower low. But I'm pretty confident we can get a nice bounce going within the next few days. Unless of course this is an "OMG CRASH !!!" we're in.

Edited by ogm, 26 July 2007 - 08:35 PM.

[arbman]

Anyone who is not expecting a bounce here must be expecting a crash, and what are the odds of that happening from here?!?

[ogm]

If you buy oversold and sell overbought.....continually. You'll continually go broke. O/B O/S indicators can remain in play for months. There are better ways to trade.

U.F.O.

I posted the oversold indicator that I was buying, the MCO. Over the past 9 years the odds are 5 to 1 that a good bottom is in. And 1 chance that a weak bottom is in. I'm playing the odds. We'll see. The odds that tomorrow will be another strong down day are 1 to 5, but then tomorrow will be a strong bottom. I can live with that. Thats why I'm 50% long.

This is all based on the 6 occurences over the past 9 years.

Edited by ogm, 26 July 2007 - 08:59 PM.