The markets have been crushed the past week and the daily OSX hasn't even come close to breaking down. Every other commodity related play has taken a hit except the OSX. IMO there's more to this selloff the the credit markets. I think there's a possibility that some of it is about peak oil.
Anyone Notice the OSX?
Started by
Cirrus
, Jul 27 2007 08:56 AM
2 replies to this topic
#2
PorkLoin
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Posted 27 July 2007 - 10:21 AM
Tim, I wouldn't doubt it. If the US would really slow down economically, that'd be a decently big deal for energy demand, but it's not as major as it used to be. Lately the producers have had more power than the consumers, while years back it wasn't so.
Worldwide, demand is still going up around 1.5% - 2% (I think) and the question is at least valid - can production keep up? Even if it can, at what price per barrel?
Doug
#3
Cirrus
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Posted 27 July 2007 - 12:05 PM
Doug,
Every major has reported a drop in production this quarter. This is amazing considering current drilling activity and 4 years of higher prices. In fact crude is near ATHs right now. Still not enough supply and too much demand.
I've been saying peak oil is behind us and even posted a survey here months ago. Most thought it was well out in the future if at all. This is going to be the major factor that shapes the world in the coming 5 years. I do expect to see the energy sector finally correct. The uraniums have already corrected and lead, in a way. At current prices the margins on uranium mining are absolutely sickening so new supply is coming there.
I also think this decline will not be like the ones since 2003. I'm expecting a 10% minimum in the SPX when all is said and done...probably in two stages.
