3 replies to this topic

[ogm]

MCO's got oversold even deeper. This is really looking like 1998 bottom now. And yet.. NDX holding up like a rock here. Didn't break yesterday's lows. I bought some NDX calls. It either collapses into oblivion here, with the rest of the market, or will be the strongest index on the coming bounce. Out of 4 high yiled stuff that I bought so far, 3 are green. Looks like selling there is exhausted. Another good sing for us, perma bulls

Edited by ogm, 27 July 2007 - 11:58 AM.

[dcengr]

I think the long NDX short SPX strategy is about to reverse... Members of the PPT were out in force today on CNBC, saying how great the economy is... Everyone knows the world watches Dow and S&P while the Nasdaq is the redheaded stepchild of the market. So the PPT will guarantee that the BIG companies remain healthy at the expensive of speculative "dumb money stocks". In order to create that illusion, they'll start dropping NDX and raising SPX, so money starts flowing into propping up those companies. And they have a convenient excuse again.. like in 2000. Look at the P/E.. how could people have bought those stocks AGAIN at those prices? It worked in 2000, could work again in 2007. My "guess" is that NDX will fall faster than SPX now that so many saw the relative strength in NDX and piled into it. All part of the bigger plan.

[ogm]

I think the long NDX short SPX strategy is about to reverse...

Members of the PPT were out in force today on CNBC, saying how great the economy is...

Everyone knows the world watches Dow and S&P while the Nasdaq is the redheaded stepchild of the market. So the PPT will guarantee that the BIG companies remain healthy at the expensive of speculative "dumb money stocks".

In order to create that illusion, they'll start dropping NDX and raising SPX, so money starts flowing into propping up those companies.

And they have a convenient excuse again.. like in 2000. Look at the P/E.. how could people have bought those stocks AGAIN at those prices? It worked in 2000, could work again in 2007.

My "guess" is that NDX will fall faster than SPX now that so many saw the relative strength in NDX and piled into it. All part of the bigger plan.

Thats why my strategy is long NDX AND SPX... one of them is bound to go up

Seriously though, I'm just buying individual stocks mostly, except for these NDX calls. Bought NYX and NDAQ just now. If the market goes up they will too. Look at the weekly charts on both, very bullish looking setup on both.

[dcengr]

I think the long NDX short SPX strategy is about to reverse...

Members of the PPT were out in force today on CNBC, saying how great the economy is...

Everyone knows the world watches Dow and S&P while the Nasdaq is the redheaded stepchild of the market. So the PPT will guarantee that the BIG companies remain healthy at the expensive of speculative "dumb money stocks".

In order to create that illusion, they'll start dropping NDX and raising SPX, so money starts flowing into propping up those companies.

And they have a convenient excuse again.. like in 2000. Look at the P/E.. how could people have bought those stocks AGAIN at those prices? It worked in 2000, could work again in 2007.

My "guess" is that NDX will fall faster than SPX now that so many saw the relative strength in NDX and piled into it. All part of the bigger plan.

Thats why my strategy is long NDX AND SPX... one of them is bound to go up

Seriously though, I'm just buying individual stocks mostly, except for these NDX calls. Bought NYX and NDAQ just now. If the market goes up they will too. Look at the weekly charts on both, very bullish looking setup on both.

I've been puzzled by the relative strength of NDX vs IXIC vs NYA vs SPX for last few weeks... NDX cumulative A/D hasn't been going up much. The entire gain of NDX last few weeks can be attributed to very small # of stocks. You can browse through the chart on each stock.

This illusion of strength based on price alone is very very dangerous to stocks. For if the few stocks that have been propping up the index drops, the index itself can drop very fast. How dangerous are those stocks that ran up that fast? Well I think I counted like 20 stocks that lead the upside for the NDX the last 3 months, and many of them have P/E over 40.. some near 100. Whether this corrects now or later after it gets much more extreme.. dunno about that.

I tend to believe many piled into the NDX because SPX contained so many financials with sub prime problems and money just has to be parked somewhere. But I tend to believe once "the problem" becomes obvious to everyone, they're still more interested in stocks that actually earn money, not companies that sell hype.