oil topped august 7 last year - maybe there is some "energy" around this date again this year
Looking at this board and the disbelief
Started by
arbman
, Jul 27 2007 04:20 PM
13 replies to this topic
#12
arbman
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- Traders-Talk User
- 19,504 posts
Quant
Posted 27 July 2007 - 06:25 PM
Guys, it is plain and clear, the market is having the biggest credit crisis since March 2005 and people are expecting it to stop declining after a 5% correction, let's talk after 8%, or 10, or maybe 12%...
Edited by kisacik, 27 July 2007 - 06:27 PM.
#13
pdx5
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- Traders-Talk User
- 9,529 posts
I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 27 July 2007 - 07:35 PM
The market ALWAYS tops out at the very TOP 
exactly when new highs are being made
That is the peak, the mountain top, the apex, whatever you may call it 
I am not saying the market has topped out, but you can't deny that possiblity
on an Intermediate Term basis.
All that liquidity in the form of loans (mortgages, LBO's, junk bonds, etc...you
know all the goblins) are not going to vanish in the quiet of the night. When any
loan defaults, someone loses, that is the lender. It is NEVER PAINLESS. If it
was that easy, we would have a permanent ongoing prosperity simply by
creating liquidity & debt endlessly. That game only works when economy is
expanding. When business cycle slows down, the piper has to be paid back.
Sure, the Fed can keep this game going for a while longer. But the longer
it goes on without correcting the imbalances, the fall will be that much greater.
Be safe, be cautious, be alert, use stops!
exactly when new highs are being made
That is the peak, the mountain top, the apex, whatever you may call it
I am not saying the market has topped out, but you can't deny that possiblity
on an Intermediate Term basis.
All that liquidity in the form of loans (mortgages, LBO's, junk bonds, etc...you
know all the goblins) are not going to vanish in the quiet of the night. When any
loan defaults, someone loses, that is the lender. It is NEVER PAINLESS. If it
was that easy, we would have a permanent ongoing prosperity simply by
creating liquidity & debt endlessly. That game only works when economy is
expanding. When business cycle slows down, the piper has to be paid back.
Sure, the Fed can keep this game going for a while longer. But the longer
it goes on without correcting the imbalances, the fall will be that much greater.
Be safe, be cautious, be alert, use stops!
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
#14
tommyt
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- Traders-Talk User
- 5,136 posts
Member
Posted 27 July 2007 - 10:36 PM
"Actually 1987 was not the same.. it was just an event. The market tanked for a couple days, generated spike extreme readings and moved on."
What? it dropped big the week before, then on Black Monday it dropped 23% IN ONE DAY!! not just tanked and generated extreme readings and moved on...The losses from Monday were devastating and did not come back for a long long time in many things. In fact I have an interesting story from the expiration Friday before Black Monday. My friend was a market maker on the options floor, and there was a big drop on expiration Friday. She said the market closed similar to today, with things selling off in the after market. Then before Monday morning, some market makers got assigned on puts that closed out of the money on expo Friday!...and it wasn't a less than a dollar out of the money thing. It happened in quite a few different stocks she said. Example, a stock closed 47.25 on expo Friday and MM's got assigned on an expiring 45 put!! It was a signal of things to come. Well then Monday came and many of these "safe" expiring puts were death. Also, the VIX went over 150 on Black Monday, didn't even register I heard.
