4 replies to this topic

[rkd80]

A lot of the breadth measures are now at levels that marked bottoms in the past 3 - 4 years. However at the same time, other indicators that I use for bottoming are somewhere quite a bit off from their low levels. For instance things like: $RHCOMPQ, $NYAD, $NYHL, etc are at extreme lows. Yet: stocks over 200, stocks over 50, nysi, summations are at around feb 27th levels. I have not seen this kind of inconsistency since the bull market began and am wondering what this means. I am curious as to what the COT report says too. My best theory on this mix of indicators and I would certainly like ogm's opinion on the matter is that we are due for bounce, but this bounce will invariably be a shorting opportunity. The extreme volume set today and yesterday implies that we retest these levels if we do indeed bounce. I am wondering what the possibility of further declines is given the extreme breadth lows, but I suppose anything is possible. What happened in the past 30 minutes is baffling and the futures sell off is worrysome, but could it be just program trading? It made no sense really...but I am seeking clarity for the next few weeks and none of my charts add up.

[qqqqtrdr]

A lot of the breadth measures are now at levels that marked bottoms in the past 3 - 4 years. However at the same time, other indicators that I use for bottoming are somewhere quite a bit off from their low levels.

For instance things like: $RHCOMPQ, $NYAD, $NYHL, etc are at extreme lows.

Yet: stocks over 200, stocks over 50, nysi, summations are at around feb 27th levels.

I have not seen this kind of inconsistency since the bull market began and am wondering what this means.

I am curious as to what the COT report says too.

My best theory on this mix of indicators and I would certainly like ogm's opinion on the matter is that we are due for bounce, but this bounce will invariably be a shorting opportunity. The extreme volume set today and yesterday implies that we retest these levels if we do indeed bounce.

I am wondering what the possibility of further declines is given the extreme breadth lows, but I suppose anything is possible. What happened in the past 30 minutes is baffling and the futures sell off is worrysome, but could it be just program trading? It made no sense really...but I am seeking clarity for the next few weeks and none of my charts add up.

I think the sell-off the weekly candlestick would be bearish buy close, so the market sold off.. Program trading.


Barry

[rkd80]

program trading would explain it the almost berserk AH selling.

Is it not true that program trading generally does the opposite the next day? In theory on Monday we couild expect the same story.

A lot of the breadth measures are now at levels that marked bottoms in the past 3 - 4 years. However at the same time, other indicators that I use for bottoming are somewhere quite a bit off from their low levels.

For instance things like: $RHCOMPQ, $NYAD, $NYHL, etc are at extreme lows.

Yet: stocks over 200, stocks over 50, nysi, summations are at around feb 27th levels.

I have not seen this kind of inconsistency since the bull market began and am wondering what this means.

I am curious as to what the COT report says too.

My best theory on this mix of indicators and I would certainly like ogm's opinion on the matter is that we are due for bounce, but this bounce will invariably be a shorting opportunity. The extreme volume set today and yesterday implies that we retest these levels if we do indeed bounce.

I am wondering what the possibility of further declines is given the extreme breadth lows, but I suppose anything is possible. What happened in the past 30 minutes is baffling and the futures sell off is worrysome, but could it be just program trading? It made no sense really...but I am seeking clarity for the next few weeks and none of my charts add up.

I think the sell-off the weekly candlestick would be bearish buy close, so the market sold off.. Program trading.


Barry

[qqqqtrdr]

It is difficult to know what Monday brings. The economy is not doing bad. I believe the indicies will find support a the 200-day MA and we should be up from there. 10-day average for CBOE Put/Call is over 1.05 and everything is rip for at least three up days. A crash does not happen with such high put call ratios. OEX Put/Call Ratio has been right with 2+ on the last few days. However, it was 1.20 today elluding to a bottom at hand. Barry

[rkd80]

Yes, index p/c fell but equity p/c dropped from yesterday to today as well. I suspect because the day was so unusual. At 3:30 dow was down -60 and everything was looking peachy so people got complacent and then most - including myself- got ransacked. I dont know if the CPC number is accurate due to the nature of the day.

Crash is unlikely, but a small chance exists.

It is difficult to know what Monday brings. The economy is not doing bad. I believe the indicies will find support a the 200-day MA and we should be up from there. 10-day average for CBOE Put/Call is over 1.05 and everything is rip for at least three up days. A crash does not happen with such high put call ratios. OEX Put/Call Ratio has been right with 2+ on the last few days. However, it was 1.20 today elluding to a bottom at hand.

Barry