12 replies to this topic

[NAV]

maybe coming to an end







Let's establish the context first. On the weekly chart of the E-mini S&P 500, the bear market started in the fall of 2000 when the weekly MACD crossed below the zero line. The bear market ended in the summer of 2003, when the weekly MACD crossed over to the upside.That establishes the bull-bear context. Right now we are in the middle of a major bull market, notwithstanding expert opinions that it may have ended. The weekly MACD is still high up in the air, to call it done. For it to crossover below zero and enter a bear market, it takes many more months of bearish price action.

Before we extrapolate the trend and say the bear market has begun, let's ask, where exactly are we in the trend. The weekly momentum as measured by the CCI is now below 200. In all the instances, during the bull context, when the weekly CCI entered the -200 zone, the market bottomed within 1-2 weeks and the eventual price low was 10-20 SPX below the price low established during the week the CCI entered below 200. Even during the bear market (except one instance in 2001), the -200 CCI has marked major market bottoms. So again, we might be within 10-20 SPX points away from a major price bottom. Expect retests of this weekly low, a couple of times, over the next 1-2 weeks. Or maybe this time is different.....

Edited by NAV, 28 July 2007 - 04:55 AM.

[NAV]

The weekly CCI moved from +100 to -200 in just a week. That's what i call a out of the blue move a.k.a PANIC. There is not a single instance since 2000, when this phenomenon has occured. It's as if the whole world realized one fine week that we are having credit problems and decided to end the bull market, LOL.

[...]

PANIC

I review a couple of hundred charts every day. A shocking number of them showed significant after-hours gains. Prime example: QQQ +.58 on 6.6 million shares. That's around +20 on NQ for Sunday night, assuming it's not bogus and no intervening nasty event.

One of my favorite tells is an inside day following what could be a completed wave down, or at least something which is due to have a significant reaction. Based on that and other gut-feelings, I found a bunch of stuff I would want to own Monday and beyond:

AMAT COST EMC ERTS FCX GES HAL HON HPQ IBM JNPR NUE NVDA SLW TIE

Much more than the one or two or three issues on the average day. Had I unlimited capital, I'd own them all. With a stop 1% under the low of the move.



Disclaimer: I use exactly zero "technical" indicators, everything I do is based on my opinion of the chart. I scalp, trade for an hour or day or week or two, and also for long-term gains. Long CNX, GG, NEM, URRE, GMO and a bunch of Dec ZG at the close. All of them qualify for the list above.

NAV mentioned on another thread that his signals are right about 80% of the time. I can relate. 40 years of doing this has resulted in about the same thing. I checked how I've been doing recently and found that in the last year 447 of 498 trades made money. 90% probably means I'm about to take a bunch of losses so I can revert to my statistical mean.

[LarryT]

THEN AGAIN MAYBE NOT, breadth momentum has achieved all time historic downside momentum. This week down volume has achieved all time historic downside momentum. Price and momentum almost never bottom at the same time.

My analysis remains we just saw an Elliott wave super cycle AB wave top until the market proves me wrong and I have already gave the parameters for what will make me wrong.

AB top wave charts updated.

http://marketcharts....ad.com/WAV.html

You be da and I be da and we should know whic one the market is in three weeks or so.

This week cycle pressure has up bias however when a larger cycle is in control like this one we may not get a bottom until the open Wednesday so be cautious until then. Looking for a low at cash 1436 then a bounce to 1480-1510 zones.

Best,

Larry

[NAV]

THEN AGAIN MAYBE NOT, breadth momentum has achieved all time historic downside momentum. This week down volume has achieved all time historic downside momentum. Price and momentum almost never bottom at the same time.

My analysis remains we just saw an Elliott wave super cycle AB wave top until the market proves me wrong and I have already gave the parameters for what will make me wrong.

AB top wave charts updated.

http://marketcharts....ad.com/WAV.html

You be da and I be da and we should know whic one the market is in three weeks or so.

This week cycle pressure has up bias however when a larger cycle is in control like this one we may not get a bottom until the open Wednesday so be cautious until then. Looking for a low at cash 1436 then a bounce to 1480-1510 zones.

Best,

Larry

SPX 1436 - we are not really disagreeing there. 10-20 points downside in the form of retest may happen. What happens after that is where we disagree. TWT.

Good luck.

Edited by NAV, 28 July 2007 - 07:50 AM.

[rkd80]

Nav, I am tending to agree with you here, when prices move in such extremes it makes you stop and think. Summer of '06 was tougher to call as it began unfolding because it did so slowly and methodically. Even looking at your chart it was hard to say what the first few weeks of the sell-off would bring. Last week was more Feb27-ish than anything. More probing could certainly happen to instill more fear, but an intra-week reversal is now in the cards given some extreme measures. I am guessing if we see more lows during the first few days then it will place the rest of my indicators into oversold conditions. rkd

[traderpaul]

That is right you ain't seen nutting yet.....Just the begining of the bear.....Just look at the junk bonds.....The volume.......The speed of the break down.....Yes, the oscillators are very obersold.....cause they were going down while the maket were making new highs.....

[ogm]

That is right you ain't seen nutting yet.....Just the begining of the bear.....Just look at the junk bonds.....The volume.......The speed of the break down.....Yes, the oscillators are very obersold.....cause they were going down while the maket were making new highs.....

I'm actually buying the bonds here...

Discounts to NAV in some places are at the levels of the 1998 Asian debt crisis.

Tripple whammy play... if the dollar goes up, its good, if the crisis is over and they'll start crawling back up, narrowing the spread, its good... and 9%+ yield is always good.

I think the world central banks are done raising interest rates. Now that market has raised them so dramaticaly. And there is no way the Fed will raise interest rates with the housing crisis overhang.

So 5% over treasuries for some selected stuff seems like a good deal.

Of course the world may come to an end, then everyone loses. But... With global economies booming, I don't think thats the case just yet.

[traderpaul]

That is right you ain't seen nutting yet.....Just the begining of the bear.....Just look at the junk bonds.....The volume.......The speed of the break down.....Yes, the oscillators are very obersold.....cause they were going down while the maket were making new highs.....

I'm actually buying the bonds here...

Discounts to NAV in some places are at the levels of the 1998 Asian debt crisis.

Tripple whammy play... if the dollar goes up, its good, if the crisis is over and they'll start crawling back up, narrowing the spread, its good... and 9%+ yield is always good.

I think the world central banks are done raising interest rates. Now that market has raised them so dramaticaly. And there is no way the Fed will raise interest rates with the housing crisis overhang.

So 5% over treasuries for some selected stuff seems like a good deal.

Of course the world may come to an end, then everyone loses. But... With global economies booming, I don't think thats the case just yet.

Why did this market go down with the global ecnonmies booming??? Rates has nuuting to do with this market......Rates went up market went up.....Rates went went market went down.....

[ogm]

Just an example... GDF.. currently 20% discount to NAV .... in 1998 was trading at 18% discount to NAV..... So you're paying 80 cents on the dollar at 9% yield. I don't think its such a bad deal. It holds some Russian bonds, and other foreign bonds. You think Russia that is running record dollar surplusses is about to default ? I don't think so. Just an example. I think the bond markets are in panic, and hedgehogs are unwinding leverage. Once this is done, I think they'll start piling that leverage back on in search of yield. You can buy this stuff on margin, pay 7% for it and get your 9% return.