7 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

What is different this time?... there are three volume superspikes on this chart, the first two, although they were huge declines were also constructive to the bull case... because what you had was huge volume, with higher highs. The third volume spike also featured a higher high BUT, this time the previous superspike volume low was broken, what I expect from here is a light volume test of that 2632 high and for the Nasdaq to give it up big time...


The Nasdaq started a bearish pattern of going higher on lighter volume a year ago about this time. You may remember I did a lot of fishing during that period. It's pretty clear the by the 3 high volume reactions characterized by the superspike declines that the Nasdaq is now puking up those gains... The short squeeze game of forcing price higher to create marginal volume is over. And from here it is my technical opinion that the only way for Nasdaq to advance here is to reverse now and start moving ahead on quality of volume... at the present that appears to be a small probability... nevertheless that is what it takes. So I will be looking for the 2632 light volume test to come on a dramatic spike and the close of the bull phase... With an expected target of around 2000 Nasdaq... where this madness started a year ago.

Edited by SemiBizz, 29 July 2007 - 02:28 PM.

[relax]

so moving lower on lighter volume would actually support further downside...just as moving higher on light volume previously supported higher prices what is your time span for your scenario - up to 2.632 this week and then... Cheers

[SemiBizz]

I think if we see the futures down tonight then there's a chance for a washout in the morning and a recovery. If these futures just pop right back up I would consider that a very bearish development...

[thespookyone]

Hi Semi: Always very interested in your take, but I don't feel that the test of 2632 will be on light volume. Could you tell me what level of volume you are considering as light, and what would constitute a more constructive level of volume in your opinion? Thanks

[SemiBizz]

Hi Semi:

Always very interested in your take, but I don't feel that the test of 2632 will be on light volume. Could you tell me what level of volume you are considering as light, and what would constitute a more constructive level of volume in your opinion?

Thanks

The bench mark is 3.4B. Since that is a record, I don't expect we're going to break it going higher but that is not impossible... So, "light" is relative to that 3.4B that the 2632 came on....

[thespookyone]

Thx Semi!

[SemiBizz]

been looking at SP futures charts.. here's what it is: 1478-85 test...over 1495 odds are high for 1530 and give it up on lower high... Hourly 5 day SPOOS.

Edited by SemiBizz, 29 July 2007 - 08:48 PM.

[SemiBizz]

So, after looking at the 10min Chart, I see 1478 test on 10 min basis. We'll see from there... The worst probable outcome is a scenario where we continue lower on light volume and then accelerate on heavy volume (duh)...

Edited by SemiBizz, 29 July 2007 - 10:19 PM.