4 replies to this topic

[selecto]

Carl Futia update.

[humble1]

great site, selecto. i have spent some time at UCB: futia's credentials are hard to overstate. there are nobel prize winners walking all over the place, not to mention all those of the past. as you probably know, UCB is rated the second best educational institution on the planet, after harvard.

[Cirrus]

I think yields in treasuries will be at this level or lower for a while. The US mortgage market really needs lower or reasonable fixed rates for another 6 to 12 months minimum to keep the housing market from coming completely undone. Continuing to look for a 1998 style market into late summer which could set up a one time Fed rate decrease...possibly. A ST 'credit crunch' may do just that.

[humble1]

the real estate situation supports futia: very little notice has been given to the analogue with the real estate bust in the 1920's and the bust in japan before the collapse of equities. and like this: newhttp://money.cnn.com/2007/07/30/news/companies/bc.americanhomemortgage.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007073010s is coming out every day and VERY EARLY in the real estate cycle bust. i know several people who have nice homes in good aeas who want/need to sell and are getting absolutley ZERO bids. we have a long, long, long way to go in time and price, imho.

[Cirrus]

the real estate situation supports futia: very little notice has been given to the analogue with the real estate bust in the 1920's and the bust in japan before the collapse of equities. and like this:

newhttp://money.cnn.com/2007/07/30/news/companies/bc.americanhomemortgage.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007073010s

is coming out every day and VERY EARLY in the real estate cycle bust. i know several people who have nice homes in good aeas who want/need to sell and are getting absolutley ZERO bids.

we have a long, long, long way to go in time and price, imho.

I completely agree humble1. The RE market is much worse than many realize. I've been waiting to buy a home for a couple years and I'm in the market now. Sellers are still in a drunken stupor IMO but prices are beginning to fall. Inventory is still rising in my area and builders are just now slowing down. This is going to be far worse than I had thought. I always guard myself from getting overly pessimistic in a FIAT environemenmt but we will have something similar to the savings and loan debacle well over a decade ago. It's going to hurt the consumer and will require low rates and moderate inflation for a couple of years to prevent something worse. This just might give stocks a leg to stand on over the IT but who knows...

Should mortgage rates get much higher than 6.5% until the correction in RE plays out there will be big trouble.